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Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?

Author

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  • Sohei Kaihatsu

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Takushi Kurozumi

    (Bank of Japan)

Abstract

Despite the widespread belief that technology shocks are the main source of business fluctuations, recent empirical studies indicate that in the absence of financial frictions, a shock to the marginal efficiency of investment is the main source and is closely related to financial conditions for investment. We incorporate a financial accelerator mechanism and two types of financial shocks to the external finance premium and net worth in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment, the investment-good price markup, and the rates of neutral and investment-specific technological changes. This model is estimated using eleven US time series that include data on loan, net worth, the loan rate, and the relative price of investment. Our estimation results show that the (non-stationary) neutral and investment-specific technology shocks primarily drive output and investment fluctuations, while the external finance premium shock plays an important role for investment fluctuations. This financial shock induced substantial falls and subsequent sharp hikes in the external finance premium and caused boom-bust cycles over the past two decades. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Sohei Kaihatsu & Takushi Kurozumi, 2014. "Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 224-242, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:11-267
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2013.08.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Kosuke Aoki & Nao Sudo, 2012. "Asset Portfolio Choice of Banks and Inflation Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 12-E-5, Bank of Japan.
    2. Yue Zhao, 2013. "Financial shocks in Japan : A case for a small open economy," KIER Working Papers 849, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    3. Hirakata, Naohisa & Sudo, Nao & Takei, Ikuo & Ueda, Kozo, 2016. "Japan's financial crises and lost decades," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 31-46.
    4. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2012. "Do Investment-Specific Technological Changes Matter For Business Fluctuations? Evidence From Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 208-230, May.
    5. IIBOSHI Hirokuni, 2012. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A DSGE-DFM Approach," ESRI Discussion paper series 292, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. MATSUMAE Tatsuyoshi & HASUMI Ryo, 2016. "Impacts of Government Spending on Unemployment: Evidence from a Medium-scale DSGE Model(in Japanese)," ESRI Discussion paper series 329, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2017. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: tales from 1001 shocks," Working Paper Series 2082, European Central Bank.
    8. Ran Li & Jiao Wang, 2015. "A structural investigation of the Chinese economy with a hybrid monetary policy rule," CAMA Working Papers 2015-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. repec:eee:jmacro:v:54:y:2017:i:pb:p:187-207 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kilponen, Juha & Orjasniemi, Seppo & Ripatti, Antti & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "The Aino 2.0 model," Research Discussion Papers 16/2016, Bank of Finland.
    11. Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Matsumae, Tatsuyoshi & Namba, Ryoichi & Nishiyama, Shin-Ichi, 2015. "Estimating a DSGE model for Japan in a data-rich environment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 25-55.
    12. Naohisa Hirakata & Takushi Kurozumi, 2013. "The International Finance Multiplier in Business Cycle Fluctuations," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
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    23. Witold Małecki, 2016. "Finansjalizacja cykli koniunkturalnych i jej konsekwencje dla polityki stabilizacyjnej," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 4, pages 47-68.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations; Neutral and investment-specific technology shocks; Financial accelarator mechanism; External finance premium shock; boom-bust cyle;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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