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Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach

  • Ippei Fujiwara

    (Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: ippei.fujiwara@boj.or.jp))

  • Yasuo Hirose

    (Economist, International Department, Bank of Japan (E-mail: yasuo.hirose@boj.or.jp))

  • Mototsugu Shintani

    (Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University, and Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: mototsugu.shintani@vanderbilt.edu, mototsugu.shintani@boj.or.jp))

We examine whether the news shocks, as explored in Beaudry and Portier (2004), can be a major source of aggregate fluctuations. For this purpose, we extend a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, a la Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005), by allowing news shocks on the total factor productivity and estimate the model using Bayesian methods. Estimation results on the Japanese and U.S. economies show that (1) the news shocks play an important role in business cycles; (2) a news shock with a longer forecast horizon has larger effects on nominal variables; and (3) the overall effect of the total factor productivity on hours worked becomes ambiguous in the presence of news shocks.

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File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/08-E-16.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 08-E-16.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:08-e-16
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  1. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2005. "The 'News' View of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Aggregate Japanese Data and Sectoral US Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5176, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Francis, Neville & Ramey, Valerie A., 2005. "Is the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis dead? Shocks and aggregate fluctuations revisited," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1379-1399, November.
  3. Adolfson, Malin & Laseen, Stefan & Linde, Jesper & Villani, Mattias, 2007. "Bayesian estimation of an open economy DSGE model with incomplete pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 481-511, July.
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  5. Tomoyuki Nakajima & Masaru Inaba & Keiichiro Kobayashi, 2007. "Collateral constraint and news-driven cycles," 2007 Meeting Papers 320, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Erceg, Christopher & Guerriei, Luca & Gust, Christopher, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," MPRA Paper 813, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Sugo, Tomohiro & Ueda, Kozo, 2008. "Estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 476-502, December.
  8. Robert J. Vigfusson, 2004. "The delayed response to a technology shock: a flexible price explanation," International Finance Discussion Papers 810, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," 2006 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
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  12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  13. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
  14. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Galí, Jordi, 2005. "Trends in Hours, Balanced Growth and the Role of Technology in the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 4915, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Barro, Robert J & King, Robert G, 1984. "Time-separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 817-39, November.
  18. Galí, Jordi, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1499, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles : a Bayesian DSGE Approach," Working Paper Research 109, National Bank of Belgium.
  20. Ippei Fujiwara & Heedon Kang, 2006. "Expectation Shock Simulation with DYNARE," QM&RBC Codes 163, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles, revised Feb 2008.
  21. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: Enhancing Productivity (NBER-CEPR-TCER-Keio conference) National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2003. "The response of hours to a technology shock: evidence based on direct measures of technology," International Finance Discussion Papers 790, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  23. Ippei Fujiwara, 2008. "Growth Expectation," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-21, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  24. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  25. Douglas Laxton & Paolo Pesenti, 2003. "Monetary Rules for Small, Open, Emerging Economies," NBER Working Papers 9568, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Miles S. Kimball, 1995. "The Quantitative Analytics of the Basic Neomonetarist Model," NBER Working Papers 5046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  28. Beaudry, Paul & Collard, Fabrice & Portier, Franck, 2011. "Gold rush fever in business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 84-97, March.
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  31. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2009. "Anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 309-327, April.
  32. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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