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Gold Rush Fever in Business Cycles

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  • Paul Beaudry
  • Fabrice Collard
  • Franck Portier

Abstract

Gold rushes are periods of economic boom, generally associated with large increases in expenditures aimed at securing claims near new found veins of gold. An interesting aspect of gold rushes is that, from a social point of view, much of the increased activity is wasteful since it contributes simply to the expansion of the stock of money. In this paper, we explore whether business cycle fluctuations may sometimes be driven by a phenomenon akin to a gold rush. In particular, we present a model where the opening of new market opportunities causes an economic expansion by favoring competition for market share, which is essentially a dissolution of rents. We call such an episode a market rush. We construct a simple model of a market rush that can be embedded into an otherwise standard Dynamic General Equilibrium model, and show how market rushes can help explain important features of the data. We use a simulated-moment estimator to quantify the role of market rushes in fluctuations. We find that market rushes may account for over half the short run volatility in hours worked and a third of the short run volatility of output.

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  • Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard & Franck Portier, 2006. "Gold Rush Fever in Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 12710, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12710
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    Cited by:

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    3. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2018. "Anticipated versus unanticipated terms of trade shocks and the J-curve phenomenon," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-19.
    4. Lewis, Vivien & Poilly, Céline, 2012. "Firm entry, markups and the monetary transmission mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(7), pages 670-685.
    5. Phong Nguyen & Wei-han Liu, 2017. "Time-Varying Linkage of Possible Safe Haven Assets: A Cross-Market and Cross-asset Analysis," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 43-76, March.
    6. Fan, Haichao & Gao, Xiang & Xu, Juanyi & Xu, Zhiwei, 2016. "News shock, firm dynamics and business cycles: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-180.
    7. Pavlov, Oscar, 2016. "Can firm entry explain news-driven fluctuations?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 427-434.
    8. Haichao Fan & Zhiwei Xu, 2014. "Firm dynamics in news-driven business cycles: the role of endogenous survival rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(15), pages 1767-1777, May.
    9. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2015. "Cross-market volatility index with Factor-DCC," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 132-140.
    10. Céline Poilly & Vivien Lewis, 2011. "Firm Entry, Inflation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," 2011 Meeting Papers 113, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1699-1711, December.
    12. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "Understanding Noninflationary Demand-Driven Business Cycles," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 69-130.
    13. Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Demographics and the decline in firm entry: Lessons from a life-cycle model," Discussion Papers 15/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Ippei Fujiwara & Yasuo Hirose & Mototsugu Shintani, 2011. "Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 1-29, February.
    15. Paul Beaudry & Martial Dupaigne & Franck Portier, 2011. "Modeling News-Driven International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(1), pages 72-91, January.
    16. Kenza Benhima & Céline Poilly, 2017. "Do Misperceptions about Demand Matter? Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 17.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    17. Amir Yaron & Steffen Hitzemann, 2017. "Welfare Costs of Oil Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1381, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Beaudry, Paul & Moura, Alban & Portier, Franck, 2015. "Reexamining the cyclical behavior of the relative price of investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 108-111.
    19. Lewis, Vivien & Stevens, Arnoud, 2015. "Entry and markup dynamics in an estimated business cycle model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 14-35.
    20. Wohltmann, Hans-Werner & Winkler, Roland C., 2008. "On the Non-Optimality of Information: An Analysis of the Welfare Effects of Anticipated Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," Economics Working Papers 2008-21, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    21. Jaimovich, Nir & Floetotto, Max, 2008. "Firm dynamics, markup variations, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1238-1252, October.
    22. Chevallier, Julien, 2012. "Global imbalances, cross-market linkages, and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 943-973.

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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