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How Important Is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?

  • Timothy J. Kehoe
  • Kim J. Ruhl

We propose a methodology for studying changes in bilateral commodity trade due to goods not exported previously or exported only in small quantities. Using a panel of 1,900 country pairs, we find that increased trade of these “least-traded goods” is an important factor in trade growth. This extensive margin accounts for 10 percent of the growth in trade for NAFTA country pairs, for example, and 26 percent in trade between the United States and Chile, China, and Korea. Looking at country pairs with no major trade policy change or structural change, however, we find little change in the extensive margin.

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File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/10.1086/670272
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File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/full/10.1086/670272
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Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Political Economy.

Volume (Year): 121 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 358 - 392

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/670272
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE/

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  1. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
  2. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2001. "A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 107, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
  4. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Data Appendix to A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Technical Appendices bergoeing02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  5. Horag Choi & George Alessandria, 2004. "Export Decisions and International Business Cycles," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 570, Econometric Society.
  6. R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976. "Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods," Working papers 178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Kraay, Aart & Ventura, Jaume, 2002. "Trade integration and risk sharing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1023-1048, June.
  8. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jenson & Samuel Kortum, 2000. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 7688, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Paul M. Romer, 1993. "New Goods, Old Theory, and the Welfare Costs of Trade Restrictions," NBER Working Papers 4452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Russell Hillberry & Christine McDaniel, 2003. "A Decomposition of North American Trade Growth since NAFTA," International Trade 0303003, EconWPA.
  11. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Decades lost and found: Mexico and Chile since 1980," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 3-30.
  12. Grubel, Herbert G & Lloyd, P J, 1971. "The Empirical Measurement of Intra- Industry Trade," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 47(120), pages 494-517, December.
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