IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Exporting under Trade Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Evidence

  • Handley, Kyle

    (University of Michigan)

I provide novel evidence for the impact of trade policy uncertainty on exporters. In a dynamic, heterogeneous firms model, trade policy uncertainty will delay the entry of exporters into new markets and make them less responsive to applied tariff reductions. Policy instruments that reduce or eliminate uncertainty, such as binding trade policy commitments at the WTO, increase entry. The predictions are tested on disaggregated, product-level Australian imports with model-consistent measures of uncertainty. Reducing policy uncertainty generates more product entry than unilateral liberalization. The results illuminate and quantify an important new channel for trade creation.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/workingpapers/Papers626-650/r634.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan in its series Working Papers with number 634.

as
in new window

Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: May 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:634
Contact details of provider: Postal: ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN 48109
Web page: http://fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nick Bloom, 2007. "Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D," CEP Discussion Papers dp0792, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  3. Buono, Ines & Lalanne, Guy, 2012. "The effect of the Uruguay round on the intensive and extensive margins of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 269-283.
  4. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
  5. Arvind Subramanian & Aaditya Mattoo, 2008. "Multilateralism Beyond Doha," Working Papers 153, Center for Global Development.
  6. Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The log of gravity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3744, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-93, July.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke, 1980. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," NBER Working Papers 0502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. George Alessandria & Horag Choi, 2007. "Do Sunk Costs of Exporting Matter for Net Export Dynamics?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(1), pages 289-336, 02.
  10. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2007. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," NBER Working Papers 12927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Armenter, Roc & Koren, Miklós, 2010. "A Balls-and-Bins Model of Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 7783, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Manuel Amador & Kyle Bagwell, 2013. "The Theory of Optimal Delegation With an Application to Tariff Caps," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1541-1599, 07.
  13. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
  14. Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno, 2012. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 8798, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P, 1993. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 145-63, June.
  16. Limão, Nuno & Maggi, Giovanni, 2013. "Uncertainty and Trade Agreements," CEPR Discussion Papers 9301, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Francois, Joseph & Martin, Will, 2002. "Commercial Policy Variability, Bindings and Market Access," CEPR Discussion Papers 3294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Melitz, Marc J, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 3381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Angrist, Joshua D, 2001. "Estimations of Limited Dependent Variable Models with Dummy Endogenous Regressors: Simple Strategies for Empirical Practice: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 27-28, January.
  20. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," Working Paper 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  21. Richard Pomfret & Uwe Kaufmann & Christopher Findlay, 2010. "Are Preferential Tariffs Utilized? Evidence from Australian Imports, 2000-9," School of Economics Working Papers 2010-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  22. Daniel Trefler, 2006. "The long and short of the Canada-U.S. free trade agreement," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6721, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  23. John Van Reenen & Nick Bloom & Steve Bond, 2006. "Uncertainty and investment dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2645, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  24. Hiau LooiKee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2009. "Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 172-199, 01.
  25. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana & Wei, Kehai, 2014. "Estimating the extensive margin of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 67-75.
  26. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2013. "How Important Is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 358 - 392.
  27. Justin Pierce & Peter Schott, 2009. "Concording U.S. Harmonized System Categories Over Time," Working Papers 09-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  28. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand & Erika Vidal, 2007. "Free Trade Agreements In the Americas: Are the Trade Effects Larger than Anticipated?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(9), pages 1347-1377, 09.
  29. Rodrik, Dani, 1991. "Policy uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 229-242, October.
  30. Eaton, Jonathan & Eslava, Marcela & Kugler, Maurice & Tybout, James, 2007. "Export Dynamics in Colombia: Firm-Level Evidence," Working Paper Series rwp07-050, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  31. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  32. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/8241 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Man-Keung Tang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "The Value of Making Commitments Externally: Evidence from WTO Accessions," Working Papers 152009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  34. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2012. "A concordance between ten-digit U.S. Harmonized System codes and SIC/NAICS product classes and industries," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  35. Andrew B Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2000. "Plants and productivity in international trade," Working Papers 00-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  36. Commission, Productivity, 2010. "Bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements," Research Reports, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia, number 43.
  37. Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
  38. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521825252 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1997. "Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 72, March.
  40. Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2001. "Market Entry Costs, Producer Heterogeneity, and Export Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. William Greene, 2002. "The Behavior of the Fixed Effects Estimator in Nonlinear Models," Working Papers 02-05, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  42. Roberts, Mark J & Tybout, James R, 1997. "The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(4), pages 545-64, September.
  43. David Hummels & Jun Ishii & Kei-Mu Yi, 1999. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Staff Reports 72, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  44. Davide Sala & Philipp J. H. Schröder & Erdal Yalcin, 2010. "Market Access Through Bound Tariffs," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(s1), pages 272-289, 07.
  45. Giovanni Maggi & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 1998. "The Value of Trade Agreements in the Presence of Political Pressures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 574-601, June.
  46. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-21, September.
  47. Peter Lloyd, 2008. "100 Years Of Tariff Protection In Australia," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 48(2), pages 99-145, 07.
  48. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S," NBER Working Papers 19376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Magee Christopher S, 2003. "Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements: An Empirical Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, December.
  50. Douglas A. Irwin, 1993. "The GATT's contribution to economic recovery in post-war Western Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 442, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  51. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Sébastien Jean & David Laborde, 2005. "Binding Overhang and Tariff-Cutting Formulas," Working Papers 2005-18, CEPII research center.
  52. W. Max Corden, 1996. "Protection and Liberalisation in Australia and Abroad," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 29(2), pages 141-154.
  53. Debaere, Peter & Mostashari, Shalah, 2010. "Do tariffs matter for the extensive margin of international trade? An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 163-169, July.
  54. Douglas C. Lippoldt, 2006. "The Australian Preferential Tariff Regime," OECD Trade Policy Papers 33, OECD Publishing.
  55. Angrist, Joshua D, 2001. "Estimations of Limited Dependent Variable Models with Dummy Endogenous Regressors: Simple Strategies for Empirical Practice," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 2-16, January.
  56. Richard Baldwin & Paul R. Krugman, 1986. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchage Rate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Johnson, Simon & Kouvelis, Panos & Sinha, Vikas, 1997. "On Reform Intensity under Uncertainty," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 297-321, December.
  58. Patrick Messerlin, 2008. "Walking a Tightrope: World Trade in Manufacturing and the Benefits of Binding," Sciences Po publications Strengthening Transatlant, Sciences Po.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:634. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (FSPP Webmaster)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.