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Trade policy uncertainty & resource misallocation

Author

Listed:
  • Rodrigue, Joel
  • Shi, Qing
  • Tan, Yong

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on resource allocation across heterogeneous Chinese producers and aggregate productivity in the Chinese manufacturing sector. Using detailed Chinese data and common cost minimization conditions we measure the difference between optimal capital and labor holdings for each firm, or the efficiency gap. We document that (i) efficiency gaps decline sharply with China’s accession to the WTO and the declines are disproportionately pronounced among industries most exposed to TPU; (ii) efficiency gap declines were larger among Chinese exporters; (iii) efficiency gap declines occur simultaneously with a rise in the variance of firm-level employment and investment in new capital. Using China’s accession to the WTO as an exogenous change in the degree of uncertainty faced by Chinese producers, we quantify the implied change in productivity due to the reduction in TPU. Our estimates imply that the reduction in TPU induced by WTO accession accounted for a 17% increase in aggregate productivity through reduced resource misallocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigue, Joel & Shi, Qing & Tan, Yong, 2024. "Trade policy uncertainty & resource misallocation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:164:y:2024:i:c:s0014292124000497
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104720
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade policy uncertainty; Resource misallocation; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F61 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Microeconomic Impacts
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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