IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v85y2025ipes1544612325014898.html

Trade policy uncertainty and services sector exports: A labor cost stickiness perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Qi, Yuan
  • Zhang, Yang

Abstract

Against the backdrop of rising volatility in global trade policies, understanding how service exports respond to uncertainty shocks has become a critical issue in international trade research. Leveraging data from Chinese listed firms, this study employs a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to examine the impact of trade policy uncertainty on service exports and its underlying mechanisms, with a focus on the moderating role of labor cost stickiness. The findings reveal that trade policy uncertainty significantly suppresses service sector exports, while labor cost stickiness exacerbates this negative effect. This study provides theoretical insights for firms seeking to optimize export strategies amid increasingly complex international trade conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Qi, Yuan & Zhang, Yang, 2025. "Trade policy uncertainty and services sector exports: A labor cost stickiness perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PE).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pe:s1544612325014898
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108234
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325014898
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.108234?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rodrigue, Joel & Shi, Qing & Tan, Yong, 2024. "Trade policy uncertainty & resource misallocation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    2. Hongguang Sui & Xijie Li & Ali Raza & Shihua Zhang, 2022. "Impact of trade policy uncertainty on export products quality: new evidence by considering role of social capital," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 997-1024, December.
    3. Jeronimo Carballo & Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Economic and Policy Uncertainty: Export Dynamics and the Value of Agreements," NBER Working Papers 24368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Huynh, Toan Luu Duc & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2023. "Spillovers and connectedness in foreign exchange markets: The role of trade policy uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 191-199.
    5. Tang, Aidi & Yao, Wen, 2022. "The effects of financial integration during crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Xiugang Zhu & Kangjuan Lv & Jingkai Gao, 2024. "Uncertainty and enterprise export recovery in China: Does the market integration matter?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 19(12), pages 1-21, December.
    7. Pei Xu & Zehu Jin & Xianghua Wu, 2025. "How Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Innovative Behavior in Export-Oriented Enterprise: Evidence From Listed Export Companies of Chinese," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2025, pages 1-16, April.
    8. Haoyuan Ding & Kees G. Koedijk & Tong Qi & Yanqing Shen, 2022. "U.S.–China trade war and corporate reallocation: Evidence from Chinese listed companies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3907-3932, December.
    9. Chen, Zhiyuan & Wang, Zhihao & Zhu, Ting & Gu, Kejian & Tang, Ying, 2025. "Trade policy uncertainty and market diversification by risk-averse firms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    10. Zhou, Fengxiu & Wen, Huwei, 2022. "Trade policy uncertainty, development strategy, and export behavior: Evidence from listed industrial companies in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    11. Jing, Peng & Li, Shuohan & Wang, Minglu, 2025. "Digital empowerment, industry chain integration and corporate energy efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Pei Xu & Zehu Jin & Xianghua Wu, 2025. "How Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affects Innovative Behavior in Export‐Oriented Enterprise: Evidence From Listed Export Companies of Chinese," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2025(1).
    13. Arundhati Sinha Roy & Anwesha Aditya & Siddhartha Chattopadhyay, 2024. "Determinants of service trade: How information and communication technology-based services are different?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 2-28, January.
    14. Mark C. Anderson & Rajiv D. Banker & Surya N. Janakiraman, 2003. "Are Selling, General, and Administrative Costs “Sticky”?," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(1), pages 47-63, March.
    15. Xiaotao Zhao & Xiaoping Chen, 2022. "Inventory Management with Trade Policy Uncertainty," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(5), pages 128-153, September.
    16. Yu, Haonan & Tian, Shan, 2025. "Impact of corporate financialization constraints on export activities: Analysis of the moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    17. Huo, Da & Gu, Wenjia & Guo, Dongmei & Tang, Aidi, 2024. "The service trade with AI and energy efficiency: Multiplier effect of the digital economy in a green city by using quantum computation based on QUBO modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    18. Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno & Ludema, Rodney D. & Yu, Zhi, 2024. "Firm input choice under trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    19. Aidi Tang, 2023. "Financial Integration and International Dynamics: The Role of Volatility Shocks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-27, November.
    20. Jun Du & Oleksandr Shepotylo & Xiaocan Yuan, 2025. "How did the Brexit uncertainty impact services exports of UK firms?," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 80-104, March.
    21. Tian, Ye & Zhao, Mengyang, 2025. "Does managerial climate risk perception improve environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chien-Chiang Lee & Farzan Yahya, 2024. "Have Dynamic Spillovers and the Connectedness of Trade Policy Uncertainty Changed During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Sino-US Trade Frictions?," Working Papers DP-2023-35, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    2. Yu, Mingzhe & Fan, Jiachuan & Wang, Haijun & Wang, Jie, 2023. "US trade policy uncertainty on Chinese agricultural imports and exports: An aggregate and product-level analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 70-83.
    3. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Rodrigue, Joel & Shi, Qing & Tan, Yong, 2024. "Trade policy uncertainty & resource misallocation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    5. Ruxu Zhang & Yahui Qu, 2022. "The Impact of U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Trade Margins of China’s Export to the U.S," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-16, November.
    6. Thomas Guenther & Anja Riehl & Richard Rößler, 2014. "Cost stickiness: state of the art of research and implications," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 301-318, February.
    7. Daniel Cohen & Raj Mashruwala & Tzachi Zach, 2010. "The use of advertising activities to meet earnings benchmarks: evidence from monthly data," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 808-832, December.
    8. Mustapha Douch & Terence Huw Edwards, 2022. "The bilateral trade effects of announcement shocks: Brexit as a natural field experiment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 305-329, March.
    9. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Scarlet Chen & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2019. "The impact of Brexit on UK firms," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 818, Bank of England.
    10. Nagar, Neerav & Sen, Kaustav, 2016. "Earnings management in India: Managers’ fixation on operating profits," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-12.
    11. Chen, Xiao & Dai, Narisa Tianjing & Liu, Leo Jiahe, 2025. "Audit implications of major customer diversity," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2).
    12. Donadelli, M. & Gufler, I. & Paradiso, A., 2024. "Financial market integration: A complex and controversial journey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    13. Thomas A. Gilliam, 2021. "Detecting Real Activities Manipulation: Beyond Performance Matching," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 57(4), pages 619-653, December.
    14. Chia-Hsin Chiang & Helen Choy & Yan-Jie Yang & Shu-Ling Yeh, 2025. "Strategic alignment between supply chain partners and cost stickiness of suppliers," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 941-999, February.
    15. Haoyuan Ding & Bo Pu & Tong Qi & Kai Wang, 2022. "Valuation effects of the US–China trade war: The effects of foreign managers and foreign exposure," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 662-683, July.
    16. Chen, Binxia & Jiang, Yuanying & Zhou, Donghai, 2025. "Risk contagion network and characteristic measurement among international financial markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    17. Banker, Rajiv D. & Byzalov, Dmitri & Chen, Lei (Tony), 2013. "Employment protection legislation, adjustment costs and cross-country differences in cost behavior," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 111-127.
    18. Hong, T., 2021. "Revisiting the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2174, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Jan Musil & Alena Kocmanova, 2025. "Sticky Costs In Relation To Geographical, Sectoral And Pandemic Factors In Smes In Central European Countries," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 34(1), pages 231-254, june.
    20. Chen, Zhiyuan & Wang, Zhihao & Zhu, Ting & Gu, Kejian & Tang, Ying, 2025. "Trade policy uncertainty and market diversification by risk-averse firms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • L80 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pe:s1544612325014898. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.