IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v91y2025ics1043951x25000586.html

Trade policy uncertainty and market diversification by risk-averse firms

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Zhiyuan
  • Wang, Zhihao
  • Zhu, Ting
  • Gu, Kejian
  • Tang, Ying

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between trade policy uncertainty (TPU) and market diversification with risk-averse firms. We build a model to demonstrate how a risk-averse firm diversifies risks stemming from escalating TPU through entering new markets whose trade policies are negatively correlated with ones in its already-entered markets. The positive effect of TPU on market diversification is moderated if the firm has lower risk hedging ability and/or is less risk-averse. Conditional on the TPU in the already-entered markets, there is an inverted-U relationship between TPU in the new market and the probability of entering it. Using a unique firm-product-level dataset on Chinese exporters, we find robust evidence supporting our theoretical predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Zhiyuan & Wang, Zhihao & Zhu, Ting & Gu, Kejian & Tang, Ying, 2025. "Trade policy uncertainty and market diversification by risk-averse firms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:91:y:2025:i:c:s1043951x25000586
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102400
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X25000586
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2025.102400?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seung‐Hyun Lee & Sangcheol Song, 2012. "Host country uncertainty, intra‐MNC production shifts, and subsidiary performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1331-1340, November.
    2. Cacciotti, Gabriella & Hayton, James C. & Mitchell, J. Robert & Giazitzoglu, Andres, 2016. "A reconceptualization of fear of failure in entrepreneurship," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 302-325.
    3. Imbruno, Michele, 2019. "Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(4), pages 806-826.
    4. Liu, Qing & Qiu, Larry D., 2016. "Intermediate input imports and innovations: Evidence from Chinese firms' patent filings," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 166-183.
    5. Egger, Peter H. & Erhardt, Katharina & Lassmann, Andrea, 2019. "Immigration and firms’ integration in international production networks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-34.
    6. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Kalina Manova, 2013. "Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, and International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 711-744.
    8. Larry Qiu & Miaojie YU, 2014. "Multiproduct Firms, Export Product Scope, and Trade Liberalization: The Role of Managerial Efficiency," Working Papers DP-2014-06, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    9. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    10. Francesco Caselli & Miklós Koren & Milan Lisicky & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Diversification Through Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 449-502.
    11. Kroszner, Randall S. & Laeven, Luc & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2007. "Banking crises, financial dependence, and growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 187-228, April.
    12. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    13. Kramarz, Francis & Martin, Julien & Mejean, Isabelle, 2020. "Volatility in the small and in the large: The lack of diversification in international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    14. Vasia Panousi & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2012. "Investment, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 1113-1148, June.
    15. Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague & Wang, Zheng & Yu, Zhihong, 2016. "Volatility and diversification of exports: Firm-level theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 216-247.
    16. Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2018. "Why Is Pollution from US Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3814-3854, December.
    17. Keith Weigelt & Colin Camerer, 1988. "Reputation and corporate strategy: A review of recent theory and applications," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(5), pages 443-454, September.
    18. Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Swenson, Deborah L., 2017. "Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from China's WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 20-36.
    19. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Manuel R. Agosin & Roberto Alvarez & Claudio Bravo‐Ortega, 2012. "Determinants of Export Diversification Around the World: 1962–2000," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 295-315, March.
    21. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Trade and Investment under Policy Uncertainty: Theory and Firm Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 4, pages 89-122, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    22. Osnago, Alberto & Piermartini, Roberta & Rocha, Nadia, 2015. "Trade policy uncertainty as barrier to trade," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2015-05, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    23. Carter Mix, 2023. "The Dynamic Effects Of Multilateral Trade Policy With Export Churning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(2), pages 653-689, May.
    24. Seung‐Hyun Lee & Mona Makhija, 2009. "Flexibility in internationalization: is it valuable during an economic crisis?," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 537-555, May.
    25. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    26. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474, December.
    27. Aksel Erbahar, 2019. "Market knowledge: Evidence from importers," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 1110-1151, April.
    28. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2011. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1453-1498, September.
    29. Michele Imbruno, 2019. "Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China," Post-Print hal-02171715, HAL.
    30. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:1:p:207-225 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Daniel A. Ackerberg & Kevin Caves & Garth Frazer, 2015. "Identification Properties of Recent Production Function Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2411-2451, November.
    32. Qing Liu & Fei Pei & Huaqing Wu & Xianfeng Zhang, 2022. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Firm Heterogeneity and Export Mode," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 441-471, January.
    33. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    34. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    35. Cui, Chuantao & Li, Leona Shao-Zhi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and new firm entry: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    36. Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno & Ludema, Rodney D. & Yu, Zhi, 2024. "Firm input choice under trade policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    37. Liu, Qing & Ma, Hong, 2020. "Trade policy uncertainty and innovation: Firm level evidence from China’s WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    38. Olley, G Steven & Pakes, Ariel, 1996. "The Dynamics of Productivity in the Telecommunications Equipment Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(6), pages 1263-1297, November.
    39. Baruch Lev & Christine Petrovits & Suresh Radhakrishnan, 2010. "Is doing good good for you? how corporate charitable contributions enhance revenue growth," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 182-200, February.
    40. Brandt, Loren & Van Biesebroeck, Johannes & Zhang, Yifan, 2014. "Challenges of working with the Chinese NBS firm-level data," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 339-352.
    41. Miaojie Yu, 2015. "Processing Trade, Tariff Reductions and Firm Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(585), pages 943-988, June.
    42. Bernard Herskovic & Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Firm Volatility in Granular Networks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4097-4162.
    43. Kalina Manova & Shang-Jin Wei & Zhiwei Zhang, 2015. "Firm Exports and Multinational Activity Under Credit Constraints," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(3), pages 574-588, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yanhui & Chen, Chujun & Fatema, Kaniz & Mi, Jackson Jinhong, 2025. "The spillover effects of trade policy uncertainty on the shipping industry," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    2. Chen, Shuiyang & Meng, Bin & Qiu, Bingcheng & Kuang, Haibo, 2025. "Dynamic effects of maritime risk on macroeconomic and global maritime economic activity," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 246-263.
    3. Sha, Feiyun & Ding, Changxu & Zheng, Xiaoyu & Wang, Jun & Tao, Yafang, 2025. "Weathering the policy Storm: How trade uncertainty shapes firm financial performance through innovation and operations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Qi, Yuan & Zhang, Yang, 2025. "Trade policy uncertainty and services sector exports: A labor cost stickiness perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yiping Sun & Chengjun Wu & Xiaoming Zhu & Pingguan Bian, 2022. "China’s Accession to the WTO as a Shock to Residents’ Health—A Difference-in-Difference Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(22), pages 1-18, November.
    2. Geng Huang & Xi Lin & Shuying Xu & Junyu Wang & Ling‐Yun He, 2025. "Trade policy uncertainty, export destination, and firm's pollution emissions: Analysis from theoretical perspective," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(4), pages 2181-2189, June.
    3. Shan Gao & Zheng Li, 2025. "Trade Policy Uncertainty, Financing Constraints, and Firm Innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(2), pages 8929-8960, June.
    4. Lingshan Chen & Yunong Li & Qian Xie & Mao Zhou, 2024. "Import Policy Uncertainty and Innovation," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 32(1), pages 197-230, January.
    5. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Yiping Sun & Xiangyi Li & Tengyuan Zhang & Jiawei Fu, 2022. "Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Exacerbate Environmental Pollution?—Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(4), pages 1-21, February.
    7. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    8. repec:isu:genstf:202001010800009179 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Crowley, Meredith & Meng, Ning & Song, Huasheng, 2018. "Tariff scares: Trade policy uncertainty and foreign market entry by Chinese firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 96-115.
    10. Yang, Zhihao & Hong, Junjie, 2021. "Trade policy uncertainty and energy intensity: Evidence from Chinese industrial firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. Li, Mengzhe & Lin, Qianru & Lan, Fei & Zhan, Zhimin & He, Zhongshi, 2023. "Trade policy uncertainty and financial investment: Evidence from Chinese energy firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    12. Yuan, Weidi & Ouyang, Difei, 2025. "Industrial development and trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China’s WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    13. Jie Ma & Rong Cai & Weifu Zhang, 2023. "Has the Decline in Trade Policy Uncertainty Promoted China’s Agricultural Exports?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-14, July.
    14. Zhou, Fengxiu & Wen, Huwei, 2022. "Trade policy uncertainty, development strategy, and export behavior: Evidence from listed industrial companies in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    15. Liu Qing & Zhang Yanchao & Li Langxing & Li Shuaihang, 2021. "The Interactive Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty and Credit Constraint Heterogeneity on Firms’ Export Margins: Theory and Empirics," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 9(6), pages 575-607, December.
    16. Federico Esposito, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0833, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    17. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Xi, Yanle & Zhang, Liang & Zhou, Yuxin & Wu, Lamei, 2024. "Trade policy uncertainty and firm-level pollution emissions: Evidence from China's accession to the WTO," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    19. Rodrigue, Joel & Shi, Qing & Tan, Yong, 2024. "Trade policy uncertainty & resource misallocation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    20. Liu, Qing & Li, Yuqing & Li, Shuaihang & Wu, Feifei, 2023. "Lose to gain: Heterogeneous impact of trade policy uncertainty on firms’ domestic sales," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    21. Xiaoling Zhao & Mingru Peng & Xing Wang & Rui Xu & Yongze Cui, 2024. "The Effect of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Green Technology Innovation: Evidence from China’s Enterprises," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-23, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:91:y:2025:i:c:s1043951x25000586. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.