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Firm Volatility in Granular Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Bernard Herskovic
  • Bryan Kelly
  • Hanno Lustig
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abstract

Firm volatilities comove strongly over time, and their common factor is the dispersion of the economy-wide firm size distribution. In the cross section, smaller firms and firms with a more concentrated customer base display higher volatility. Network effects are essential to explaining the joint evolution of the empirical firm size and firm volatility distributions. We propose and estimate a simple network model of firm volatility in which shocks to customers influence their suppliers. Larger suppliers have more customers, and customer-supplier links depend on customers’ size. The model produces distributions of firm volatility, size, and customer concentration consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernard Herskovic & Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Firm Volatility in Granular Networks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4097-4162.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/710345
    DOI: 10.1086/710345
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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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