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Firm Volatility in Granual Networks

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  • Herskovic, Bernard
  • Kelly, Bryan
  • Lustig, Hanno
  • van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn

Abstract

Firm volatilities co-move strongly over time, and their common factor is the dispersion of the economy-wide firm size distribution. In the cross section, smaller firms and firms with a more concentrated customer base display higher volatility. Network effects are essential to explaining the joint evolution of the empirical firm size and firm volatility distributions. We propose and estimate a simple network model of firm volatility in which shocks to customers influence their suppliers. Larger suppliers have more customers and the strength of a customer-supplier link depends on the size of the customer. The model produces distributions of firm volatility, size, and customer concentration that are consistent with the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Herskovic, Bernard & Kelly, Bryan & Lustig, Hanno & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "Firm Volatility in Granual Networks," CEPR Discussion Papers 12284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12284
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Atushi Ishikawa & Shouji Fujimoto & Takayuki Mizuno & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Analytical Derivation of Power Laws in Firm Size Variables from Gibrat’s Law and Quasi-inversion Symmetry: A Geomorphological Approach," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 019, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    3. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Mizuno, Takayuki & Souma, Wataru & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2014. "The Structure and Evolution of Buyer-Supplier Networks," Working Paper Series 27, Center for Interfirm Network, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. repec:eee:dyncon:v:88:y:2018:i:c:p:31-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Atkeson, Andrew G. & Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2017. "Measuring the financial soundness of U.S. firms, 1926–2012," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 613-635.
    8. MIZUNO Takayuki & SOUMA Wataru & WATANABE Tsutomu, 2015. "Buyer-Supplier Networks and Aggregate Volatility," Discussion papers 15056, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Takayuki Mizuno & Wataru Souma & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Buyer-Supplier Networks and Aggregate Volatility," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 033, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    10. repec:eee:jfinec:v:125:y:2017:i:1:p:1-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Takayuki Mizuno & Wataru Souma & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Buyer-Supplier Networks and Aggregate Volatility," CARF F-Series CARF-F-353, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    12. Itzhak Ben-DAVID & Francesco A. FRANZONI & Rabih MOUSSAWI & John SEDUNOV III, 2015. "The Granular Nature of Large Institutional Investors," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-67, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Apr 2016.
    13. Michael Bailey & Ruiqing Cao & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "Social Networks and Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 22258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2017. "Banking integration and house price co-movement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 1-25.
    15. Campello, Murillo & Gao, Janet, 2017. "Customer concentration and loan contract terms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 108-136.
    16. repec:eee:corfin:v:48:y:2018:i:c:p:34-48 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague & Wang, Zheng & Yu, Zhihong, 2016. "Volatility and diversification of exports: Firm-level theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 216-247.
    18. Xavier Gabaix, 2016. "Power Laws in Economics: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 185-206, Winter.
    19. Herskovic, Bernard & Kelly, Bryan & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2016. "The common factor in idiosyncratic volatility: Quantitative asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 249-283.
    20. Mihov, Atanas & Naranjo, Andy, 2017. "Customer-base concentration and the transmission of idiosyncratic volatility along the vertical chain," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 73-100.
    21. repec:eee:respol:v:46:y:2017:i:7:p:1340-1359 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Can Tian, 2014. "Forecast Shocks in Production Networks," 2014 Meeting Papers 87, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Chakrabarti, Anindya S., 2015. "Dispersion in macroeconomic volatility between the core and periphery of the international trade network," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-08-08, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    24. Takayuki Mizuno & Wataru Souma & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "The Structure and Evolution of Buyer-Supplier Networks," CARF F-Series CARF-F-339, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    25. Bonaccolto, Giovanni & Caporin, Massimiliano & Panzica, Roberto Calogero, 2017. "Estimation and model-based combination of causality networks," SAFE Working Paper Series 165, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregate volatility; firm size distribution; Firm volatility; granularity; networks;

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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