The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations
This paper argues that in the presence of intersectoral input-output linkages, microeconomic idiosyncratic shocks may lead to aggregate fluctuations. In particular, it shows that, as the economy becomes more disaggregated, the rate at which aggregate volatility decays is determined by the structure of the network capturing such linkages. Our main results provide a characterization of this relationship in terms of the importance of different sectors as suppliers to their immediate customers as well as their role as indirect suppliers to chains of downstream sectors. Such higher-order interconnections capture the possibility of "cascade effects" whereby productivity shocks to a sector propagate not only to its immediate downstream customers, but also indirectly to the rest of the economy. Our results highlight that sizable aggregate volatility is obtained from sectoral idiosyncratic shocks only if there exists significant asymmetry in the roles that sectors play as suppliers to others, and that the "sparseness" of the input-output matrix is unrelated to the nature of aggregate fluctuations.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 80 (2012)
Issue (Month): 5 (09)
|Contact details of provider:|| Phone: 1 212 998 3820|
Fax: 1 212 995 4487
Web page: http://www.econometricsociety.org/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: https://www.econometricsociety.org/publications/econometrica/access/ordering-back-issues Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ballester, Coralio & Calvó-Armengol, Antoni & Zenou, Yves, 2005.
"Who’s Who in Networks. Wanted: The Key Player,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Coralio Ballester & Antoni Calvó-Armengol & Yves Zenou, 2004. "Who's Who in Networks. Wanted: The Key Player," Working Papers 178, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Coralio Ballester & Antoni Calvo-Armengol & Yves Zenou, 2005. "Who's Who in Networks. Wanted: the Key Player," NajEcon Working Paper Reviews 666156000000000586, www.najecon.org.
- Carvalho, Vasco M & Gabaix, Xavier, 2010.
"The Great Diversification and its Undoing,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8044, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2010. "The great diversification and its undoing," Economics Working Papers 1208, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2010.
- Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2010. "The Great Diversification and its Undoing," Working Papers 422, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Vasco M. Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2010. "The Great Diversification and its Undoing," NBER Working Papers 16424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Gabaix & Vasco M. Carvalho, 2010. "The Great Diversification and its Undoing," 2010 Meeting Papers 880, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jovanovic, Boyan, 1986.
"Micro Shocks and Aggregate Risks,"
86-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2009.
"The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
15286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2011.
"Rank - 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, January.
- Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2007. "Rank-1/2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," NBER Technical Working Papers 0342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2006. "Log(Rank-1/2): A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2106, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Steven N. Durlauf, 1991.
"Nonergodic Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Burres, David, 1994. "Homeomorphism between Leontief and Cobb-Douglas input-output models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 49-53.
- Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2010. "Cascades in Networks and Aggregate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 16516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonio Ciccone, 2000.
"Input chains and industrialization,"
Economics Working Papers
498, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
- Charles R. Hulten, 1978. "Growth Accounting with Intermediate Inputs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 511-518.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecm:emetrp:v:80:y:2012:i:5:p:1977-2016. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.