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Firm Volatility in Granular Networks

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  • Bryan Kelly
  • Hanno Lustig
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

Abstract

We propose a network model of firm volatility in which the customers' growth rate shocks influence the growth rates of their suppliers, larger suppliers have more customers, and the strength of a customer-supplier link depends on the size of the customer firm. Even though all shocks are i.i.d., the network model produces firm-level volatility and size distribution dynamics that are consistent with the data. In the cross section, larger firms and firms with less concentrated customer networks display lower volatility. Over time, the volatilities of all firms co-move strongly, and their common factor is concentration of the economy-wide firm size distribution. Network effects are essential to explaining the joint evolution of the empirical firm size and firm volatility distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2013. "Firm Volatility in Granular Networks," NBER Working Papers 19466, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19466
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Atushi Ishikawa & Shouji Fujimoto & Takayuki Mizuno & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Analytical Derivation of Power Laws in Firm Size Variables from Gibrat’s Law and Quasi-inversion Symmetry: A Geomorphological Approach," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 019, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    3. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Mizuno, Takayuki & Souma, Wataru & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2014. "The Structure and Evolution of Buyer-Supplier Networks," Working Paper Series 27, Center for Interfirm Network, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidities and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Atkeson, Andrew G. & Eisfeldt, Andrea L. & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2017. "Measuring the financial soundness of U.S. firms, 1926–2012," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 613-635.
    7. MIZUNO Takayuki & SOUMA Wataru & WATANABE Tsutomu, 2015. "Buyer-Supplier Networks and Aggregate Volatility," Discussion papers 15056, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Takayuki Mizuno & Wataru Souma & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Buyer-Supplier Networks and Aggregate Volatility," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 033, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    9. repec:eee:jfinec:v:125:y:2017:i:1:p:1-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Takayuki Mizuno & Wataru Souma & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "Buyer-Supplier Networks and Aggregate Volatility," CARF F-Series CARF-F-353, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    11. Itzhak Ben-DAVID & Francesco A. FRANZONI & Rabih MOUSSAWI & John SEDUNOV III, 2015. "The Granular Nature of Large Institutional Investors," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-67, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Apr 2016.
    12. Michael Bailey & Ruiqing Cao & Theresa Kuchler & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "Social Networks and Housing Markets," NBER Working Papers 22258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Landier, Augustin & Sraer, David & Thesmar, David, 2017. "Banking integration and house price co-movement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 1-25.
    14. Campello, Murillo & Gao, Janet, 2017. "Customer concentration and loan contract terms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 108-136.
    15. Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague & Wang, Zheng & Yu, Zhihong, 2016. "Volatility and diversification of exports: Firm-level theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 216-247.
    16. Xavier Gabaix, 2016. "Power Laws in Economics: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 185-206, Winter.
    17. Herskovic, Bernard & Kelly, Bryan & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2016. "The common factor in idiosyncratic volatility: Quantitative asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 249-283.
    18. Mihov, Atanas & Naranjo, Andy, 2017. "Customer-base concentration and the transmission of idiosyncratic volatility along the vertical chain," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 73-100.
    19. repec:eee:respol:v:46:y:2017:i:7:p:1340-1359 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Can Tian, 2014. "Forecast Shocks in Production Networks," 2014 Meeting Papers 87, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Chakrabarti, Anindya S., 2015. "Dispersion in macroeconomic volatility between the core and periphery of the international trade network," IIMA Working Papers WP2015-08-08, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    22. Takayuki Mizuno & Wataru Souma & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2014. "The Structure and Evolution of Buyer-Supplier Networks," CARF F-Series CARF-F-339, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    23. Bonaccolto, Giovanni & Caporin, Massimiliano & Panzica, Roberto Calogero, 2017. "Estimation and model-based combination of causality networks," SAFE Working Paper Series 165, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.

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    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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