IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bof/bofrdp/2018_003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price rigidities and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Pasten, Ernosto
  • Schoenle, Raphael
  • Weber, Michael

Abstract

We study the ability of sectoral shocks to generate aggregate fluctuations in a multi-sector general equilibrium model featuring sectoral heterogeneity in price stickiness, sector size, and input-output linkages. We show fat-tailed distributions of sectoral size or network centrality are neither necessary nor sufficient for idiosyncratic shocks to generate aggregate fluctuations when the responsiveness of prices to shocks varies across sectors. We derive conditions under which a frictional origin of aggregate fluctuations arises, that is, when micro shocks contribute to aggregate fluctuations in an economy with heterogeneous price rigidities but equal sector size and network centrality across sectors. We calibrate a 341-sector version of the to the United States and a quantitatively large frictional effect. When we allow for heterogeneities in price rigidity, sector size, and network centrality, the effect of micro shocks on GDP volatility doubles relative to a frictionless economy. Heterogeneity in price rigidity also substantially changes the identity of the sectors from which GDP fluctuations originate.

Suggested Citation

  • Pasten, Ernosto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2018. "Price rigidities and the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations," Research Discussion Papers 3/2018, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2018_003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/123456789/15163/1/BoF_DP_1803.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter J. Klenow & Oleksiy Kryvtsov, 2008. "State-Dependent or Time-Dependent Pricing: Does it Matter for Recent U.S. Inflation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(3), pages 863-904.
    2. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte, 2018. "The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 85(4), pages 2042-2096.
    3. Simon Gilchrist & Raphael Schoenle & Jae Sim & Egon Zakrajšek, 2017. "Inflation Dynamics during the Financial Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 785-823, March.
    4. Mark Bils & Peter J. Klenow, 2004. "Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(5), pages 947-985, October.
    5. Yukiko Saito & Makoto Nirei & Vasco Carvalho, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from Great East Japan Earthquake," 2014 Meeting Papers 595, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    7. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    8. Bernard Herskovic, 2015. "Networks in Production: Asset Pricing Implications," 2015 Meeting Papers 378, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Virgiliu Midrigan, 2011. "Menu Costs, Multiproduct Firms, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1139-1180, July.
    10. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael, 2016. "Rational inattention, multi-product firms and the neutrality of money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1-16.
    11. Basu, Susanto, 1995. "Intermediate Goods and Business Cycles: Implications for Productivity and Welfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 512-531, June.
    12. Vasco Carvalho & Xavier Gabaix, 2013. "The Great Diversification and Its Undoing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1697-1727, August.
    13. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2014. "Firms, Destinations, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1303-1340, July.
    14. Charles R. Hulten, 1978. "Growth Accounting with Intermediate Inputs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 511-518.
    15. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko & Isabelle Mejean, 2018. "The Micro Origins of International Business-Cycle Comovement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(1), pages 82-108, January.
    16. Herskovic, Bernard & Kelly, Bryan & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2016. "The common factor in idiosyncratic volatility: Quantitative asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 249-283.
    17. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    18. Enghin Atalay, 2017. "How Important Are Sectoral Shocks?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 254-280, October.
    19. Bhattarai, Saroj & Schoenle, Raphael, 2014. "Multiproduct firms and price-setting: Theory and evidence from U.S. producer prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 178-192.
    20. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2010. "Monetary Non-neutrality in a Multisector Menu Cost Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 961-1013.
    21. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    22. Saki Bigio & Jennifer La’O, 2020. "Distortions in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(4), pages 2187-2253.
    23. Vasco M. Carvalho & Basile Grassi, 2019. "Large Firm Dynamics and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1375-1425, April.
    24. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    25. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 350-384, March.
    26. D’Acunto, Francesco & Liu, Ryan & Pflueger, Carolin & Weber, Michael, 2018. "Flexible prices and leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 46-68.
    27. Daron Acemoglu & Vasco M. Carvalho & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz‐Salehi, 2012. "The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(5), pages 1977-2016, September.
    28. Saki Bigio, 2013. "Financial Frictions in Production Networks," 2013 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    29. Ali Ozdagli & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "Monetary Policy through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 6486, CESifo.
    30. Daron Acemoglu & Ufuk Akcigit & William Kerr, 2016. "Networks and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Exploration," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 273-335.
    31. Bernard Herskovic & Bryan Kelly & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2020. "Firm Volatility in Granular Networks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(11), pages 4097-4162.
    32. Xavier Gabaix & Rustam Ibragimov, 2011. "Rank - 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39, January.
    33. Carlos Carvalho & Jae Won Lee & Woong Yong Park, 2021. "Sectoral Price Facts in a Sticky-Price Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 216-256, January.
    34. Basile Grassi, 2017. "IO in I-O: Competition and Volatility in Input-Output Networks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1637, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    35. David Rezza Baqaee, 2018. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1819-1838, September.
    36. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2016. "Are Sticky Prices Costly? Evidence from the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(1), pages 165-199, January.
    37. Vasco M. Carvalho, 2014. "From Micro to Macro via Production Networks," Working Papers 793, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    38. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    39. Dupor, Bill, 1999. "Aggregation and irrelevance in multi-sector models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 391-409, April.
    40. D’Acunto, Francesco & Liu, Ryan & Pflueger, Carolin & Weber, Michael, 2018. "Flexible prices and leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 46-68.
    41. Jean-Noël Barrot & Julien Sauvagnat, 2016. "Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(3), pages 1543-1592.
    42. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    43. Bouakez, Hafedh & Cardia, Emanuela & Ruge-Murcia, Francisco, 2014. "Sectoral price rigidity and aggregate dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-22.
    44. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
    45. Gabaix, Xavier & Ibragimov, Rustam, 2011. "Rank − 1 / 2: A Simple Way to Improve the OLS Estimation of Tail Exponents," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 24-39.
    46. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
    47. Fernando Alvarez & Hervé Le Bihan & Francesco Lippi, 2016. "The Real Effects of Monetary Shocks in Sticky Price Models: A Sufficient Statistic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 2817-2851, October.
    48. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2008. "Five Facts about Prices: A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 123(4), pages 1415-1464.
    49. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    50. Michael Horvath, 1998. "Cyclicality and Sectoral Linkages: Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(4), pages 781-808, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frank Smets & Joris Tielens & Jan Van Hove, 2018. "Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics," Working Paper Research 351, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The propagation of monetary policy shocks in a heterogeneous production economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-22.
    3. Bart Hobijn, 2020. "The Supply-Side Origins of U.S. Inflation," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 7, pages 227-268, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Vasco M. Carvalho & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2019. "Production Networks: A Primer," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 635-663, August.
    5. Emmanuel Dhyne & Glenn Magerman & Ayumu Ken kikkawa, 2019. "Imperfect Competition in Firm-to-Firm Trade," Working Papers ECARES 2019-05, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Cox, Lydia & Müller, Gernot & Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Big G," CEPR Discussion Papers 14625, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
      • Lydia Cox & Gernot Müller & Ernesto Pastén & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2020. "Big G," NBER Working Papers 27034, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Lydia Cox & Gernot Muller & Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2020. "Big G," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 878, Central Bank of Chile.
      • Lydia Cox & Gernot J. Müller & Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2020. "Big G," Working Papers 2020-36, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
      • , 2020. "Big G," Working Papers 202015, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
      • Lydia Cox & Gernot Müller & Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2020. "Big G," CESifo Working Paper Series 8229, CESifo.
    7. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(1), pages 105-163.
    8. Baqaee, David Rezza & Farhi, Emmanuel, 2020. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 14743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Eric Anderson & Sergio Rebelo & Arlene Wong, 2018. "Markups Across Space and Time," NBER Working Papers 24434, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2019. "Long and Plosser meet Bewley and Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-92.
    11. D’Acunto, Francesco & Liu, Ryan & Pflueger, Carolin & Weber, Michael, 2018. "Flexible prices and leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 46-68.
    12. Andrew T. Foerster & Eric LaRose & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2018. "Idiosyncratic Sectoral Growth, Balanced Growth, and Sectoral Linkages," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 2Q, pages 79-101.
    13. Henkel, Lukas, 2020. "Sectoral output effects of monetary policy: do sticky prices matter?," Working Paper Series 2473, European Central Bank.
    14. Francesco D'Acunto & Michael Weber & Jin Xie & Michael Weber, 2019. "Punish One, Teach A Hundred: The Sobering Effect of Punishment on the Unpunished," CESifo Working Paper Series 7512, CESifo.
    15. Joris Tielens, 2019. "Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics," 2019 Meeting Papers 856, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael S. Schoenle & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2018. "Price Rigidity and the Origins af Aggregate Fluctuations," CESifo Working Paper Series 7190, CESifo.
    2. Ernesto Pasten & Raphael Schoenle & Michael Weber, 2017. "Price Rigidity and the Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 23750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Pasten, Ernesto & Schoenle, Raphael & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The propagation of monetary policy shocks in a heterogeneous production economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-22.
    4. Dong, Feng & Wen, Yi, 2019. "Long and Plosser meet Bewley and Lucas," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 70-92.
    5. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. David Rezza Baqaee, 2018. "Cascading Failures in Production Networks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1819-1838, September.
    8. Frank Smets & Joris Tielens & Jan Van Hove, 2018. "Pipeline Pressures and Sectoral Inflation Dynamics," Working Paper Research 351, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2019. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(4), pages 1155-1203, July.
    10. Glenn Magerman & Karolien De Bruyne & Emmanuel Dhyne & Jan Van Hove, 2016. "Heterogeneous Firms and the Micro Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2016-35, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Emmanuel Dhyne & Glenn Magerman & Ayumu Ken kikkawa, 2019. "Imperfect Competition in Firm-to-Firm Trade," Working Papers ECARES 2019-05, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Yukiko Saito & Makoto Nirei & Vasco Carvalho, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from Great East Japan Earthquake," 2014 Meeting Papers 595, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2018. "Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Agents and Input-Output Networks," NBER Working Papers 24684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(1), pages 105-163.
    15. Imbs, Jean & Pauwels, Laurent, 2019. "Fundamental Moments," Working Papers BAWP-2019-06, University of Sydney Business School, Discipline of Business Analytics.
    16. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2017. "Microeconomic Origins of Macroeconomic Tail Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(1), pages 54-108, January.
    17. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Yang, Cynthia Fan, 2020. "Econometric analysis of production networks with dominant units," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 507-541.
    18. Yoshiyuki ARATA, 2020. "The Role of Granularity in the Variance and Tail Probability of Aggregate Output," Discussion papers 20027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Caunedo, Julieta, 2020. "Aggregate fluctuations and the industry structure of the US economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    20. Oleksandr Talavera & Nam Vu, 2020. "Inventory Shock and Price-Setting," Discussion Papers 20-14, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2018_003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Minna Nyman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bofgvfi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.