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Determinants of Export Diversificationaround the World: 1962 - 2000

Author

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  • Manuel R. Agosin
  • Roberto Alvarez
  • Claudio Bravo-Ortega

Abstract

Using a large dataset of countries, covering the period 1962-2000, this paper analyzes the main determinants of export diversification (concentration). We explore the role of several factors and we use three different indicators of export concentration. We find robust evidence across specifications and indicators that trade openness induces higher specialization. In contrast, financial development does not seem to help countries to diversify their exports. Looking at the effects of exchange rates, in some of our results we find a positive effect of real exchange rate volatility on concentration, but not significant effects of exchange rate overvaluation. We also find evidence that human capital accumulation contributes positively to diversify exports and that increasing remoteness tends to reduce export diversification. We also explore the role of terms-of-trade shocks. Most of our results suggest an interesting interaction between this variable and human capital: improvements in the terms of trade tend to concentrate exports, but this effect is lower for those countries with higher levels of human capital. This evidence suggests that countries with higher education can take advantage of positive terms of trade shocks to increase export diversification.

Suggested Citation

  • Manuel R. Agosin & Roberto Alvarez & Claudio Bravo-Ortega, 2011. "Determinants of Export Diversificationaround the World: 1962 - 2000," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 605, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:605
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maria Persson & Fredrik Wilhelmsson, 2016. "EU Trade Preferences and Export Diversification," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 16-53, January.
    2. Habiyaremye, Alexis, 2016. "Is Sino-African trade exacerbating resource dependence in Africa?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-12.
    3. Sekkat, Khalid, 2016. "Exchange rate misalignment and export diversification in developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-14.
    4. Giray Gozgor & Muhlis Can, 2016. "Effects of the product diversification of exports on income at different stages of economic development," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 215-235, August.
    5. Rougier, Eric, 2016. "“Fire in Cairo”: Authoritarian–Redistributive Social Contracts, Structural Change, and the Arab Spring," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 148-171.
    6. Roberto Basile & Aleksandra Parteka & Rosanna Pittiglio, 2015. "Export diversification and economic development: a dynamic spatial data analysis," Gecomplexity Discussion Paper Series 15, Action IS1104 "The EU in the new complex geography of economic systems: models, tools and policy evaluation", revised Dec 2015.
    7. Lectard, Pauline & Rougier, Eric, 2018. "Can Developing Countries Gain from Defying Comparative Advantage? Distance to Comparative Advantage, Export Diversification and Sophistication, and the Dynamics of Specialization," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 90-110.
    8. Amighini, Alessia & Sanfilippo, Marco, 2014. "Impact of South–South FDI and Trade on the Export Upgrading of African Economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-17.
    9. Gozgor, Giray & Can, Muhlis, 2016. "Export Product Diversification and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 69761, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Cirera, Xavier & Marin, Anabel & Markwald, Ricardo, 2015. "Explaining export diversification through firm innovation decisions: The case of Brazil," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1962-1973.
    11. Hanousek, Jan & Kočenda, Evžen, 2014. "Factors of trade in Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 518-535.
    12. Clement ANNE, 2016. "Are Commodity Price Booms an Opportunity to Diversify? Evidence from Resource-dependent Countries," Working Papers 201615, CERDI.
    13. Antonelli Cristiano & Fassio Claudio, 2013. "The economics of the light economy. Globalization, skill biased technological change and slow growth," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201307, University of Turin.
    14. Aleksandra Parteka & Massimo Tamberi, 2013. "What Determines Export Diversification in the Development Process? Empirical Assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(6), pages 807-826, June.
    15. Campbell, Douglas L., 2011. "Estimating the impact of currency unions on trade using a dynamic gravity framework," MPRA Paper 35531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Karsten Mau, 2016. "Export diversification and income differences reconsidered: The extensive product margin in theory and application," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 351-381, May.
    17. Parteka, Aleksandra & Tamberi, Massimo, 2013. "Product diversification, relative specialisation and economic development: Import–export analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 121-135.
    18. Ndambendia, Houdou, 2014. "Exports diversification and knowledge sharing from south-south and south-north economic cooperation: evidence from the Central and West Africa," MPRA Paper 71571, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    19. Carneiro, Francisco Galrao & Longmore, Rohan & Riveira Cazorla, Marta & Jaupart, Pascal, 2014. "A Future without Oil? Diversifying Options for Trinidad and Tobago," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 142, pages 1-7, May.
    20. repec:spr:minecn:v:30:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s13563-017-0110-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Lederman,Daniel & Pienknagura,Samuel Jaime & Rojas,Diego, 2015. "Latent trade diversification and its relevance for macroeconomic stability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7332, The World Bank.
    22. repec:gam:jecomi:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:50-:d:122713 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Cimoli, Mario & Fleitas, Sebastian & Porcile, Gabriel, 2011. "Real Exchange Rate and the Structure of Exports," MPRA Paper 37846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Antonelli, Cristiano & Fassio, Claudio, 2014. "The economics of the light economy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 89-107.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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