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Determinants of Export Diversification Around the World: 1962–2000

  • Manuel R. Agosin
  • Roberto Alvarez
  • Claudio Bravo‐Ortega

Using a large dataset of countries, covering the period 1962-2000, this paper analyzes the main determinants of export diversification (concentration). We explore the role of several factors and we use three different indicators of export concentration. We find robust evidence across specifications and indicators that trade openness induces higher specialization. In contrast, financial development does not seem to help countries to diversify their exports. Looking at the effects of exchange rates, in some of our results we find a positive effect of real exchange rate volatility on concentration, but not significant effects of exchange rate overvaluation. We also find evidence that human capital accumulation contributes positively to diversify exports and that increasing remoteness tends to reduce export diversification. We also explore the role of terms-of-trade shocks. Most of our results suggest an interesting interaction between this variable and human capital: improvements in the terms of trade tend to concentrate exports, but this effect is lower for those countries with higher levels of human capital. This evidence suggests that countries with higher education can take advantage of positive terms of trade shocks to increase export diversification.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2011.01395.x
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Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal The World Economy.

Volume (Year): 35 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (03)
Pages: 295-315

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:35:y:2012:i:3:p:295-315
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  1. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
  2. Ricardo N. Bebczuk & Daniel Berrettoni, 2006. "Explaining Export Diversification: An Empirical Analysis," Department of Economics, Working Papers 065, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  3. Amurgo-Pacheco, Alberto & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2008. "Patterns of export diversification in developing countries : intensive and extensive margins," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4473, The World Bank.
  4. Claudio Bravo Ortega & Álvaro García Marín, 2008. "Exploring the Relationship between R&D and Productivity: A Country-Level Study," Working Papers wp282, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
  5. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2000. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," CID Working Papers 42, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  6. Manuel Arellano, 2003. "Modelling Optimal Instrumental Variables For Dynamic Panel Data Models," Working Papers wp2003_0310, CEMFI.
  7. Hausmann, Ricardo & Rodrik, Dani, 2003. "Economic development as self-discovery," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 603-633, December.
  8. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
  10. Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?," NBER Working Papers 9273, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Anne O. Krueger & Hal B. Lary & Terry Monson & Narongchai Akrasanee, 1980. "Trade and Employment in Developing Countries, Volume 1: Individual Studies," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krue80-1, May.
  12. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  13. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
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