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Dynamic effects of maritime risk on macroeconomic and global maritime economic activity

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  • Chen, Shuiyang
  • Meng, Bin
  • Qiu, Bingcheng
  • Kuang, Haibo

Abstract

We employ textual analysis on 1793935 news articles from seven newspapers to comprehensively measure adverse maritime events and associated risks across seven dimensions, resulting in the development of a news-based Maritime Risk Index (MRI). We validate the professionalism, effectiveness, and robustness of MRI in capturing maritime risks. The MRI adversely affects various aspects of the macroeconomic market performance, monetary policy, employment, and industrial production. Higher maritime risk predicts a decrease in the output of the shipping sector, reducing shipping capacity and significantly impacting global maritime trade activities. MRI innovations include crucial information about port congestion and surging freight rates, playing a key role in explaining and foreshadowing port congestion. It serves as a leading (price discovery) indicator in the dry bulk and container shipping markets and exhibits a bidirectional causal relationship with the tanker shipping market. Our findings not only advance the understanding of maritime transport system risks and their interaction with macroeconomic, but also offer practical applications for improving transport policy and practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shuiyang & Meng, Bin & Qiu, Bingcheng & Kuang, Haibo, 2025. "Dynamic effects of maritime risk on macroeconomic and global maritime economic activity," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 246-263.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:167:y:2025:i:c:p:246-263
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.03.035
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