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Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Lucas F. Husted
  • John H. Rogers
  • Bo Sun

Abstract

We construct new measures of uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy actions and their consequences - monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) indexes. We show that, under a variety of VAR identification schemes, positive shocks to uncertainty about monetary policy robustly raise credit spreads and reduce output. The effects are of comparable magnitude to those of conventional monetary policy shocks. We evaluate the usefulness of our MPU indexes, and examine the influence of Fed communication. Our analysis suggests that policy rate normalization that is accompanied by reduced uncertainty can help neutralize the contractionary effects of the rate increases themselves.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas F. Husted & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2017. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty," International Finance Discussion Papers 1215, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1215
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2017.1215
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1215.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Shoag, Daniel & Veuger, Stan, 2016. "Uncertainty and the geography of the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 84-93.
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    6. Azzimonti, Marina, 2018. "Partisan conflict and private investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 114-131.
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    12. William R. Emmons & Aeimit K. Lakdawala & Christopher J. Neely, 2006. "What are the odds? option-based forecasts of FOMC target changes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 543-562.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy uncertainty ; VAR identification ; FOMC communication;

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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