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Monetary Policy Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Lucas F. Husted
  • John H. Rogers
  • Bo Sun

Abstract

We construct new measures of uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy actions and their consequences - monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) indexes. We show that, under a variety of VAR identification schemes, positive shocks to uncertainty about monetary policy robustly raise credit spreads and reduce output. The effects are of comparable magnitude to those of conventional monetary policy shocks. We evaluate the usefulness of our MPU indexes, and examine the influence of Fed communication. Our analysis suggests that policy rate normalization that is accompanied by reduced uncertainty can help neutralize the contractionary effects of the rate increases themselves.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas F. Husted & John H. Rogers & Bo Sun, 2017. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty," International Finance Discussion Papers 1215, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1215
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2017.1215
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1215.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul C. Tetlock & Maytal Saar-Tsechansky & Sofus Macskassy, 2008. "More Than Words: Quantifying Language to Measure Firms' Fundamentals," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1437-1467, June.
    2. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 69-85, Fall.
    3. Ellen E. Meade & Miguel Acosta, 2015. "Hanging on Every Word : Semantic Analysis of the FOMC's Postmeeting Statement," FEDS Notes 2015-09-30, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Joshua Angrist & Alan Krueger, 2001. "Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification: From Supply and Demand to Natural Experiments," Working Papers 834, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    5. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    6. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    7. repec:fth:prinin:455 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy uncertainty ; VAR identification ; FOMC communication;

    JEL classification:

    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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