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Risk Shocks

  • Lawrence Christiano
  • Roberto Motto
  • Massimo Rostagno

We augment a standard monetary DSGE model to include a Bernanke-Gertler-Gilchrist financial accelerator mechanism. We fit the model to US data, allowing the volatility of cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty to fluctuate over time. We refer to this measure of volatility as 'risk'. We find that fluctuations in risk are the most important shock driving the business cycle.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18682.

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Date of creation: Jan 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Christiano, Lawrence J., Roberto Motto, and Massimo Rostagno. 2014. "Risk Shocks." American Economic Review, 104(1): 27-65.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18682
Note: EFG
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  1. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2009. "Investment Shocks and the Relative Price of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 7598, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Michelle Alexopoulos, 2010. "Read All About it!! What happens following a technology shock?," Working Papers tecipa-391, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  3. Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's All in the Timing," NBER Working Papers 15464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Joseph S. Vavra, 2013. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," NBER Working Papers 19148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Carlstrom, Charles T & Fuerst, Timothy S, 1997. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 893-910, December.
  6. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Lawrence Christiano & Daisuke Ikeda, 2014. "Leverage Restrictions in a Business Cycle Model," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Sofía Bauducco & Lawrence Christiano & Claudio Raddatz (ed.), Macroeconomic and Financial Stability: challenges for Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 19, chapter 7, pages 215-216 Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2009. "What’s News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Emmanuel De Veirman & Andrew Levin, 2014. "Cyclical changes in firm volatility," DNB Working Papers 408, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  10. Lawrence Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock market booms," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 85-145.
  11. Merz, Monika, 1995. "Search in the labor market and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 269-300, November.
  12. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  13. Matthias Kehrig, 2011. "The Cyclicality of Productivity Dispersion," Working Papers 11-15, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  14. Williamson, Stephen D, 1987. "Financial Intermediation, Business Failures, and Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1196-1216, December.
  15. Hernan Moscoso Boedo & Pablo D'Erasmo, 2013. "Intangibles and Endogenous Firm Volatility over the Business Cycle," 2013 Meeting Papers 97, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Lawrence J. Christiano & Joshua M. Davis, 2006. "Two flaws in business cycle dating," Working Paper 0612, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  17. Furlanetto, Francesco & Seneca, Martin, 2014. "Investment shocks and consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 111-126.
  18. Fisher, Jonas D M, 1999. "Credit Market Imperfections and the Heterogeneous Response of Firms to Monetary Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(2), pages 187-211, May.
  19. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2010. "DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 7, pages 285-367 Elsevier.
  20. Saki Bigio, 2012. "Financial Risk Capacity," 2012 Meeting Papers 97, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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