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Financial Markets and Fluctuations in Uncertainty

Author Info

  • Yan Bai

    (Arizona State University)

  • Patrick Kehoe

    (Princeton University)

  • Cristina Arellano

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

Abstract

Researchers have documented that in the recent financial crisis the large decline in economic activity and credit has been accompanied by a large increase in the dispersion of growth rates across firms. We build a quantitative general equilibrium model in which financial frictions interact with increases in uncertainty at the firm level to generate a contraction in economic activity and a large increase in the dispersion of growth rates across firms. We find that our model can generate about 67% of the decline in output of the Great Recession of 2007. A promising feature of our model is that it generates large labor wedges, a feature of the recent data on business cycles.

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File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2011/paper_896.pdf
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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 896.

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Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:896
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Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA

Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
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  1. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2004. "Idiosyncratic shocks and the role of nonconvexities in plant and aggregate investment dynamics," Working Papers 04-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  2. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 581-593.
  3. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
  4. Richard Rogerson & Johanna Wallenius, 2007. "Micro and Macro Elasticities in a Life Cycle Model With Taxes," NBER Working Papers 13017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 1999. "Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 99-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:

  1. Damiano Sandri & Fabian Valencia, 2012. "Balance-Sheet Shocks and Recapitalizations," IMF Working Papers 12/68, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Decker, Ryan & D'Erasmo, Pablo & Moscoso Boedo, Herman J., 2014. "Market exposure and endogenous firm volatility over the business cycle," Working Papers 14-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Marc Joëts & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Working Papers 2015-02, CEPII research center.
  4. Andrew Atkeson & Andrea L. Eisfeldt & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2013. "Measuring the financial soundness of U.S. firms, 1926-2012," Staff Report 484, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Fabian Valencia, 2013. "Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit," IMF Working Papers 13/241, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Johnson, Timothy C. & Lee, Jaehoon, 2014. "On the systematic volatility of unpriced earnings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 84-104.

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