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Financial Markets and Fluctuations in Uncertainty

Author Info

  • Yan Bai

    (Arizona State University)

  • Patrick Kehoe

    (Princeton University)

  • Cristina Arellano

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

Abstract

Researchers have documented that in the recent financial crisis the large decline in economic activity and credit has been accompanied by a large increase in the dispersion of growth rates across firms. We build a quantitative general equilibrium model in which financial frictions interact with increases in uncertainty at the firm level to generate a contraction in economic activity and a large increase in the dispersion of growth rates across firms. We find that our model can generate about 67% of the decline in output of the Great Recession of 2007. A promising feature of our model is that it generates large labor wedges, a feature of the recent data on business cycles.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 896.

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Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:896
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  1. Yan Bai & Jing Zhang & Cristina Arellano, 2009. "Firm Dynamics and Financial Development," 2009 Meeting Papers 152, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 1999. "Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 99-14, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," NBER Working Papers 5091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
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Cited by:

  1. Lee E. Ohanian & Andrea Raffo, 2011. "Aggregate Hours Worked in OECD Countries: New Measurement and Implications for Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 17420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Chen, Kaiji & Song, Zheng, 2009. "Financial Frictions on Capital Allocation: A Transmission Mechanism of TFP Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 15211, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Anh Nguyen, 2015. "Financial frictions and the volatility of monetary policy in a DSGE model," Working Papers 75949436, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  4. Johnson, Timothy C. & Lee, Jaehoon, 2014. "On the systematic volatility of unpriced earnings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 84-104.

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