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Financial Markets and Fluctuations in Uncertainty

  • Yan Bai

    (Arizona State University)

  • Patrick Kehoe

    (Princeton University)

  • Cristina Arellano

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

Researchers have documented that in the recent financial crisis the large decline in economic activity and credit has been accompanied by a large increase in the dispersion of growth rates across firms. We build a quantitative general equilibrium model in which financial frictions interact with increases in uncertainty at the firm level to generate a contraction in economic activity and a large increase in the dispersion of growth rates across firms. We find that our model can generate about 67% of the decline in output of the Great Recession of 2007. A promising feature of our model is that it generates large labor wedges, a feature of the recent data on business cycles.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 896.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:896
Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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  1. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Jing Zhang, 2009. "Firm Dynamics and Financial Development," NBER Working Papers 15193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," NBER Working Papers 5091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Krusell, P & Smith Jr, A-A, 1995. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomic," RCER Working Papers 399, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2001. "Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1286-1310, December.
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