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Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Gian Luca Clementi

    (Department of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University and RCEA)

  • Dino Palazzo

    (Department of Finance and Economics, Boston University School of Management)

Abstract

How important are firm entry and exit in shaping aggregate dynamics? We address this question by characterizing the equilibrium allocation in Hopenhayn (1992)’s model of equilibrium industry dynamics, amended to allow for investment in physical capital and aggregate fluctuations. We find that entry and exit propagate the effects of aggregate shocks. In turn, this results in greater persistence and unconditional variation of aggregate time-series. In the aftermath of a positive productivity shock, the number of entrants increases. The new firms are smaller and less productive than the incumbents, as in the data. As the common productivity component reverts to its unconditional mean, the new entrants that survive become progressively more productive, keeping aggregate efficiency higher than in a scenario without entry or exit. We also find that both the mean and variance of the cross-sectional distribution of firm–level productivity are counter–cyclical, in spite of the assumption that innovations to firm–level productivity are i.i.d. and orthogonal to aggregate shocks. This happens because of selection: the idiosyncratic productivity of the marginal entrant is lower in expansion than during recessions. Since idiosyncratic productivity is mean–reverting, mean and variance of the distribution of productivity growth are pro–cyclical.

Suggested Citation

  • Gian Luca Clementi & Dino Palazzo, 2010. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Paper series 27_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:27_10
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Selection; Propagation; Persistence; Survival; Reallocation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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