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Assessing the accuracy of the aggregate law of motion in models with heterogeneous agents

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  • Den Haan, Wouter J.

Abstract

This paper shows that the R2 and the standard error have fatal flaws and are inadequate accuracy tests. Using data from a Krusell-Smith economy, I show that approximations for the law of motion of aggregate capital, for which the true standard deviation of aggregate capital is up to 14% (119%) higher than the implied value and which are thus clearly inaccurate, can have an R2 as high as 0.9999 (0.99). Key in generating a more powerful test is that predictions of the aggregate law of motion are not updated with the aggregated simulated individual data.

Suggested Citation

  • Den Haan, Wouter J., 2010. "Assessing the accuracy of the aggregate law of motion in models with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 79-99, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:1:p:79-99
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    1. Algan, Yann & Allais, Olivier & Den Haan, Wouter J., 2008. "Solving heterogeneous-agent models with parameterized cross-sectional distributions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 875-908, March.
    2. Den Haan, Wouter J, 1996. "Heterogeneity, Aggregate Uncertainty, and the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 399-411, October.
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    4. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2007. "Asset Pricing with Idiosyncratic Risk and Overlapping Generations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(4), pages 519-548, October.
    5. Krusell, Per & Smith, Anthony A., 1997. "Income And Wealth Heterogeneity, Portfolio Choice, And Equilibrium Asset Returns," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 387-422, June.
    6. Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Business Cycles In The Equilibrium Model Of Labor Market Search And Self‐Insurance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 399-432, May.
    7. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Rendahl, Pontus, 2010. "Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using explicit aggregation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 69-78, January.
    8. Algan, Yann & Allais, Olivier & Den Haan, Wouter J., 2008. "Solving heterogeneous-agent models with parameterized cross-sectional distributions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 875-908, March.
    9. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
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    12. Manuel S. Santos, 2000. "Accuracy of Numerical Solutions using the Euler Equation Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1377-1402, November.
    13. Den Haan, Wouter J., 1997. "Solving Dynamic Models With Aggregate Shocks And Heterogeneous Agents," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(02), pages 355-386, June.
    14. Silos, Pedro, 2007. "Housing, portfolio choice and the macroeconomy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2774-2801, August.
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    18. Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 1997. "Computation of equilibria in heterogeneous agent models," Staff Report 231, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    19. Algan, Yann & Allais, Olivier & Den Haan, Wouter J., 2010. "Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using parameterized cross-sectional distributions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 59-68, January.
    20. Eric R Young, 2005. "Approximate Aggregation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 141, Society for Computational Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Numerical solutions Simulations Approximations;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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