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Assessing the accuracy of the aggregate law of motion in models with heterogeneous agents

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  • Den Haan, Wouter J.

Abstract

This paper shows that the R2 and the standard error have fatal flaws and are inadequate accuracy tests. Using data from a Krusell-Smith economy, I show that approximations for the law of motion of aggregate capital, for which the true standard deviation of aggregate capital is up to 14% (119%) higher than the implied value and which are thus clearly inaccurate, can have an R2 as high as 0.9999 (0.99). Key in generating a more powerful test is that predictions of the aggregate law of motion are not updated with the aggregated simulated individual data.

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  • Den Haan, Wouter J., 2010. "Assessing the accuracy of the aggregate law of motion in models with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 79-99, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:1:p:79-99
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    Cited by:

    1. Gian Luca Clementi & Dino Palazzo, 2010. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Paper series 27_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2013. "Credit Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(6), pages 1055-1107.
    3. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    4. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2010. "Monetary Non-neutrality in a Multisector Menu Cost Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(3), pages 961-1013.
    5. Bayer, Christian & Lütticke, Ralph & Pham-Do, Lien & Tjaden, Volker, 2015. "Precautionary Savings, Illiquid Assets, and the Aggregate Consequences of Shocks to Household Income Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 10849, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Fatih Guvenen, 2011. "Macroeconomics with hetereogeneity : a practical guide," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 3Q, pages 255-326.
    7. Hong, Sungki, 2017. "Customer Capital, Markup Cyclicality, and Amplification," Working Papers 2017-33, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Lütticke, Ralph & Bayer, Christian & Pham, Lien & Tjaden, Volker, 2013. "Household Income Risk, Nominal Frictions, and Incomplete Markets," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79868, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Francisco Covas & Shigeru Fujita, 2007. "Private risk premium and aggregate uncertainty in the model of uninsurable investment risk," Working Papers 07-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    10. Joseph Vavra, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 215-258.
    11. Den Haan, Wouter J., 2010. "Comparison of solutions to the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 4-27, January.
    12. R?diger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2014. "Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1392-1416, April.
    13. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:125-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Russell W. Cooper & Immo Schott, 2013. "Capital Reallocation and Aggregate Productivity," NBER Working Papers 19715, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Rendahl, Pontus, 2010. "Solving the incomplete markets model with aggregate uncertainty using explicit aggregation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 69-78, January.
    16. Jack Favilukis & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Housing Wealth, Housing Finance, and Limited Risk Sharing in General Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(1), pages 140-223.
    17. Immo Schott, 2013. "Startups, Credit, and the Jobless Recovery," 2013 Meeting Papers 340, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Patrick Macnamara, 2015. "Limited Re-Entry And Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 1-40, December.
    19. Christian Bayer & Volker Tjaden, 2016. "Large Open Economies and Fixed Costs of Capital Adjustment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 125-146, July.
    20. Kaplan, Greg & Mitman, Kurt & Violante, Giovanni L., 2017. "The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 12215, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, "undated". "Does Lumpy Investment Matter for Business Cycles?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2010-002, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    22. Basile Grassi & Vasco Carvalho, 2015. "Firm Dynamics and the Granular Hypothesis," 2015 Meeting Papers 617, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Gian Luca Clementi & Dino Palazzo, 2010. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers 10-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    24. Macnamara Patrick, 2016. "Understanding entry and exit: a business cycle accounting approach," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 47-91, January.

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    Keywords

    Numerical solutions Simulations Approximations;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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