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Cross-Sectoral Variation in The Volatility of Plant-Level Idiosyncratic Shocks

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  • Rui Castro
  • Gian Luca Clementi
  • Yoonsoo Lee

Abstract

We estimate the volatility of plant-level idiosyncratic shocks in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Our measure of volatility is the variation in Revenue Total Factor Productivity which is not explained by either industry- or economy-wide factors, or by establishments' characteristics. Consistent with previous studies, we find that idiosyncratic shocks are much larger than aggregate random disturbances, accounting for about 80% of the overall uncertainty faced by plants. The extent of cross-sectoral variation in the volatility of shocks is remarkable. Plants in the most volatile sector are subject to about six times as much idiosyncratic uncertainty as plants in the least volatile. We provide evidence suggesting that idiosyncratic risk is higher in industries where the extent of creative destruction is likely to be greater.

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  • Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi & Yoonsoo Lee, 2011. "Cross-Sectoral Variation in The Volatility of Plant-Level Idiosyncratic Shocks," NBER Working Papers 17659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17659
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    Cited by:

    1. Gian Luca Clementi & Dino Palazzo, 2010. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Paper series 27_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Julien Prat & Boyan Jovanovic, 2015. "Reputation Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 971, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Jose Maria Barrero, 2017. "Firm Dynamics with Subjective Beliefs," 2017 Meeting Papers 367, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. repec:eee:dyncon:v:83:y:2017:i:c:p:107-148 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jinhee Woo, 2016. "The Cyclicality of Entry and Exit: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Imperfect Information," 2016 Meeting Papers 613, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. repec:mnb:finrev:v:16:y:2017:i:2:p:40-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Andrea Caggese, 2015. "Financing Constraints, Radical versus Incremental Innovation, and Aggregate Productivity," Working Papers 865, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    8. Dutz, Mark A., 2013. "Resource reallocation and innovation : converting enterprise risks into opportunities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6534, The World Bank.
    9. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen & Hristov, Atanas, 2017. "Surprise, surprise – Measuring firm-level investment innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 107-148.
    10. Kim Huynh & Teodora Paligorova & Robert Petrunia, 2013. "Public/Private Transitions and Firm Financing," Staff Working Papers 13-36, Bank of Canada.
    11. Ezzat, Hassan, 2012. "The Application of GARCH Methods in Modeling Volatility Using Sector Indices from the Egyptian Exchange," MPRA Paper 51584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Gian Luca Clementi & Dino Palazzo, 2010. "Entry, Exit, Firm Dynamics, and Aggregate Fluctuations," Working Papers 10-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    13. Lee, Yoonsoo & Mukoyama, Toshihiko, 2015. "Productivity and employment dynamics of US manufacturing plants," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 190-193.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • L16 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Industrial Organization and Macroeconomics; Macroeconomic Industrial Structure
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives

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