IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v104y2014i4p1392-1416.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • R?diger Bachmann
  • Christian Bayer

Abstract

The cross-sectional dispersion of firm-level investment rates is procyclical. This makes investment rates different from productivity, output, and employment growth, which have countercyclical dispersions. A calibrated heterogeneous-firm business cycle model with nonconvex capital adjustment costs and countercyclical dispersion of firm-level productivity shocks replicates these facts and produces a correlation between investment dispersion and aggregate output of 0.53, close to 0.45 in the data. We find that small shocks to the dispersion of productivity, which in the model constitutes firm risk, suffice to generate the mildly procyclical investment dispersion in the data but do not produce serious business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • R?diger Bachmann & Christian Bayer, 2014. "Investment Dispersion and the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1392-1416, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:4:p:1392-1416
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.4.1392
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.4.1392
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/app/10404/20110289_app.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/10404/20110289_data.zip
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/ds/10404/20110289_ds.zip
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Den Haan, Wouter J., 2010. "Assessing the accuracy of the aggregate law of motion in models with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 79-99, January.
    2. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger & Ron Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2007. "Volatility and Dispersion in Business Growth Rates: Publicly Traded versus Privately Held Firms," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 107-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Amit Gandhi & Salvador Navarro & David Rivers, 2011. "On the Identification of Production Functions: How Heterogeneous is Productivity?," University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP) Working Papers 20119, University of Western Ontario, Centre for Human Capital and Productivity (CHCP).
    4. James Levinsohn & Amil Petrin, 2003. "Estimating Production Functions Using Inputs to Control for Unobservables," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(2), pages 317-341.
    5. Per Krusell & Anthony A. Smith & Jr., 1998. "Income and Wealth Heterogeneity in the Macroeconomy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 867-896, October.
    6. Bayer, Christian, 2006. "Investment dynamics with fixed capital adjustment cost and capital market imperfections," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1909-1947, November.
    7. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 173-206, June.
    8. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    9. Ackerberg, Daniel & Caves, Kevin & Frazer, Garth, 2006. "Structural identification of production functions," MPRA Paper 38349, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roberta Distante & Ivan Petrella & Emiliano Santoro, 2013. "Asymmetry Reversals and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2013.54, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Mecikovsky, Ariel Matias & Meier, Matthias, 2014. "Do plants freeze upon uncertainty shocks?," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100541, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Matthias Kehrig & Nicolas Vincent, 2013. "Financial Frictions and Investment Dynamics in Multi-Plant Firms," Working Papers 13-56, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    4. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2015. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?," NBER Working Papers 20913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Christian Bayer & Volker Tjaden, 2016. "Large Open Economies and Fixed Costs of Capital Adjustment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 125-146, July.
    6. Behn, Markus Wilhelm & Haselmann, Rainer & Vig, Vikrant, 2014. "The limits of model-based regulation," IMFS Working Paper Series 82, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    7. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Bayer, Christian & Merkl, Christian & Seth, Stefan & Stüber, Heiko & Wellschmied, Felix, 2017. "Worker Churn and Employment Growth at the Establishment Level," IZA Discussion Papers 11063, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    8. Cosmin Ilut & Matthias Kehrig & Martin Schneider, 2014. "Slow to Hire, Quick to Fire: Employment Dynamics with Asymmetric Responses to News," NBER Working Papers 20473, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Rui Castro & Gian Luca Clementi & Yoonsoo Lee, 2015. "Cross Sectoral Variation in the Volatility of Plant Level Idiosyncratic Shocks," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 1-29, March.
    10. Roys, Nicolas, 2014. "Optimal investment policy with fixed adjustment costs and complete irreversibility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 416-419.
    11. D'Elia, Enrico & Nascia, Leopoldo & Zeli, Alessandro, 2011. "Analisi dei modelli d’impresa: discontinuità e sviluppo
      [Analysing firm's evolution: discontinuity and growth]
      ," MPRA Paper 35926, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Joseph Vavra, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 129(1), pages 215-258.
    13. repec:eee:moneco:v:92:y:2017:i:c:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Elstner, Steffen & Hristov, Atanas, 2017. "Surprise, surprise – Measuring firm-level investment innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 107-148.
    15. Fatih Guvenen, 2015. "The Research Agenda: Fatih Guvenen on Findings from Big Data on Income Inequality and Income Uncertainty," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), April.
    16. Zetlin-Jones, Ariel & Shourideh, Ali, 2017. "External financing and the role of financial frictions over the business cycle: Measurement and theory," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-15.
    17. Nowzohour, Laura & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "More than a feeling: confidence, uncertainty and macroeconomic fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2100, European Central Bank.
    18. D'Elia, Enrico, 2011. "A simple model of discontinuous firm’s growth," MPRA Paper 35925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Tian, Can, 2015. "Riskiness, endogenous productivity dispersion and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 227-249.
    20. Erik Öberg & Karl Harmenberg, 2016. "Durable Expenditure Dynamics under Time-Varying Income Risk," 2016 Meeting Papers 672, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Benhabib, Jess & Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei, 2016. "Endogenous information acquisition and countercyclical uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 601-642.
    22. repec:lrk:eeaart:36_1_16 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D42 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Monopoly
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:4:p:1392-1416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael P. Albert). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.