IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany

  • von Kalckreuth, Ulf

The impact of uncertainty on firms? investment outlays is subject to an ongoing debate. Theory identifies several channels. Irreversibility, financing constraints and risk aversion make a negative relationship between uncertainty and investment likely. On the other hand, the ability of firms to adapt after uncertainty is resolved can make a risky strategy more attractive. Therefore, risk may also constitute an incentive to invest. The net effect is theoretically indeterminate. The empirical literature has not yet been able to settle the question. This paper studies the impact of uncertainty on firm?s investment outlays using the database of the Deutsche Bundesbank's corporate balance sheet statistics. Our database represents roughly 75% of the total turnover of the west German manufacturing sector. The sample used for estimation contains 6,745 firms with almost 50,000 observations, covering the years 1987 - 1997. This is a period long enough to generate measures of uncertainty specific to both firm and time. Using panel econometric methods, we estimate the effect of sales uncertainty and cost uncertainty on investment demand. We obtain two key results. First, there is a moderately strong and consistently negative effect of uncertainty on investment. If both uncertainty indicators are increased by one standard deviation, the estimated investment demand will fall by 6?% of its mean. Furthermore, it emerges that sales uncertainty and cost uncertainty are of equal importance for investment: both our indicators contribute about 3 percentage points to the total reduction of investment.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19533/1/200005dkp.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2000,05.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4141
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Postfach 10 06 02, 60006 Frankfurt

Phone: 0 69 / 95 66 - 34 55
Fax: 0 69 / 95 66 30 77
Web page: http://www.bundesbank.de/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Hall, B. & Mairesse, J. & Mulkay, B., 1998. "Firm-Level Investment in France and the United States: An Exploration of What We Have Learned in Twenty Years," Economics Papers 143, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  2. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Tiomo, André, 2001. "Investment, the cost of capital, and monetary policy in the nineties in France: a panel data investigation," Working Paper Series 0106, European Central Bank.
  3. von Kalckreuth, Ulf, 2002. "Monetary Transmission in Germany: New Perspectives on Financial Constraints and Investment Spending," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 179, Royal Economic Society.
  4. Hall, Bronwyn H, 1987. "The Relationship between Firm Size and Firm Growth in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 583-606, June.
  5. Hjalmar Böhm & Michael Funke & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 1999. "Discovering the Link between Uncertainty and Investment - Microeconometric Evidence from Germany," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 19906, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  6. Yair MUNDLAK & Donald F. LARSON & Rita BUTZER, 1999. "Rethinking Within and Between Regressions: The Case of Agricultural Production Functions," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 55-56.
  7. Guiseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 223-246.
  8. Evans, David S, 1987. "Tests of Alternative Theories of Firm Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(4), pages 657-74, August.
  9. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
  10. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227.
  11. Caselli, P. & Pagano, P. & Schivardi, F., 2000. "Investment and Growth in Europe and in the United States in the Nineties," Papers 372, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  12. Werner, Thomas, 2000. "Die Wirkung von Wechselkursvolatilitäten auf das Investitionsverhalten," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 97, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
  13. Gaiotti, Eugenio & Generale, Andrea, 2001. "Does monetary policy have asymmetric effects? A look at the investment decisions of Italian firms," Working Paper Series 0110, European Central Bank.
  14. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  15. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 157-79, May.
  16. Robert S. Chirinko & Huntley Schaller, 2008. "The Irreversibility Premium," CESifo Working Paper Series 2265, CESifo Group Munich.
  17. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
  18. Paul Butzen & Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2002. "The impact of uncertainty on investment plans," Working Paper Research 24, National Bank of Belgium.
  19. Ciaran Driver & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2005. "Explaining the Diversity of Industry Investment Responses to Uncertainty Using Long Run Panel Survey Data," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0405, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  20. Frank Windmeijer, 2000. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear two-step GMM estimators," IFS Working Papers W00/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  21. Lensink, R. & Sterken, Elmer, 1999. "Capital market imperfections, uncertainty and corporate investment in the Czech Republic," Research Report 99E51, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  22. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 173-206, June.
  23. Marga PEETERS, 2001. "Does Demand and Price Uncertainty affect Belgian and Spanish Corporate Investment?," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2001031, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  24. Stephen Bond & Julie Ann Elston & Jacques Mairesse & Beno�t Mulkay, 2003. "Financial Factors and Investment in Belgium, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom: A Comparison Using Company Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(1), pages 153-165, February.
  25. Evans, David S., 1986. "The Relationship Between Firm Growth, Size, and Age: Estimates for 100 Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 86-33, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  26. J. B. Chatelain & Andrea Generale & I. Hernando & U. von Kalckreuth & P. Vermeulen, 2001. "Firm investment and monetary transmission in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 431, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  27. Sterken, Elmer & Lensink, Robert & Bo, Hong, 2002. "Investment, cash flow and uncertainty: evidence for the Netherlands," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 A3-2, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  28. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
  29. Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 1998. "What Do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?," Studies in Economics 9804, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  30. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 581-593.
  31. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
  32. M Arellano & O Bover, 1990. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models," CEP Discussion Papers dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  33. Guiseppe Bertola & Ricardo J. Caballero, 1994. "Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 223-246.
  34. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel, 1999. "Explaining Investment Dynamics in U.S. Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(4), pages 783-826, July.
  35. Bo, Hong, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Uncertainty and Firm Investment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 1-14, March.
  36. von Kalckreuth, Ulf & Jorg Breitung & Robert S Chirinko, 2003. "A Vectorautoregressive Investment Model (VIM) and Monetary Policy Transmission: Panel Evidence from German Firms," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 213, Royal Economic Society.
  37. Robert Chirinko & Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "Further Evidence on the Relationship between Firm Investment and Financial Status," Emory Economics 0302, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  38. Hansen, Bruce E & West, Kenneth D, 2002. "Generalized Method of Moments and Macroeconomics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 460-69, October.
  39. Minton, Bernadette A. & Schrand, Catherine, 1999. "The impact of cash flow volatility on discretionary investment and the costs of debt and equity financing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 423-460, December.
  40. Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M. R. A. Engel & John C. Haltiwanger, 1995. "Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(2), pages 1-54.
  41. Chirinko, Robert S. & Fazzari, Steven M. & Meyer, Andrew P., 1999. "How responsive is business capital formation to its user cost?: An exploration with micro data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-80, October.
  42. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
  43. Nicholas Bloom & Steve Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  44. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 581-593.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:4141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.