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Irreversible Investment and Knightian Uncertainty

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  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Hiroyuki Ozaki

    (Faculty of Economics, Tohoku University)

Abstract

When firms decide about irreversible investment, they may not have perfect confidence about their perceived probability measure describing future uncertainty. They may think other probability measures perturbed from the original one are also probable. Uncertainty characterized by not a single probability measure but a set of probability measures is called Knightian uncertainty. The effect of Knightian uncertainty on the value of irreversible investment opportunity is shown to be drastically different from that of the traditional uncertainty in the form of risk. Specifically, an increase in Knightian uncertainty decreases the value of investment opportunity while an increase in risk increases it.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Hiroyuki Ozaki, 2002. "Irreversible Investment and Knightian Uncertainty," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-176, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:tky:fseres:2002cf176
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilboa, Itzhak, 1987. "Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 65-88, February.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    3. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-587, May.
    4. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 173-206, June.

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