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Idiosyncratic Uncertainty and Firm Investment

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  • Hong Bo

Abstract

We test the impact of idiosyncratic demand uncertainty on investment using a panel of 82 Dutch listed manufacturing firms in the period 1984–1995. The measure of uncertainty is constructed by estimating a state space model at the firm level to isolate idiosyncratic uncertainty from other unobserved components. Generalised Method of Moments estimators show that demand uncertainty, which is specific to the firm, depresses firm investment. More interestingly, we find that idiosyncratic uncertainty is more important in explaining firm investment than total uncertainty that mixes idiosyncratic uncertainty with other sources of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Hong Bo, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Uncertainty and Firm Investment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 1-14, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:41:y:2002:i:1:p:1-14
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8454.00146
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    Cited by:

    1. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil & Rakeeb, Fathima Roshan, 2021. "Investment, firm-specific uncertainty, and market power in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 389-395.
    2. Buncic, Daniel & Piras, Gion Donat, 2016. "Heterogeneous agents, the financial crisis and exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 313-359.
    3. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Abdul Rashid, 2017. "Capital structure adjustments: Do macroeconomic and business risks matter?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1463-1502, December.
    4. Christopher F. Baum & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2004. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Firm Leverage," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 443, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Mark J. Koetse & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2011. "A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Investment–Uncertainty Relationship," Chapters, in: Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder (ed.), Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Silva, A. Christian & Prange, Richard E., 2007. "Virtual volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 507-516.
    7. Christopher F. Baum & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2009. "The Effects Of Uncertainty On The Leverage Of Nonfinancial Firms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 216-225, April.
    8. Rashid, Abdul, 2013. "Risks and financing decisions in the energy sector: An empirical investigation using firm-level data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 792-799.
    9. Catherine Fuss & Philip Vermeulen, 2008. "Firms' investment decisions in response to demand and price uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(18), pages 2337-2351.
    10. Ulf von Kalckreuth, 2003. "Exploring the role of uncertainty for corporate investment decisions in Germany," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(II), pages 173-206, June.
    11. Christopher F. Baum & Atreya Chakraborty & Liyan Han & Boyan Liu, 2012. "The effects of uncertainty and corporate governance on firms’ demand for liquidity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(4), pages 515-525, February.
    12. Kort, Peter M. & Murto, Pauli & Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2010. "Uncertainty and stepwise investment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 196-203, April.
    13. Marina Riem, 2016. "Corporate investment decisions under political uncertainty," ifo Working Paper Series 221, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    14. Mark J. Koetse & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2006. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Investment: A Meta-Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-060/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Stephan, Andreas & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2008. "Uncertainty determinants of corporate liquidity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 833-849, September.
    16. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim & Liebensteiner, Mario & Schindler, Nora, 2016. "Investment under Uncertainty in Electricity Generation," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 234, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    17. Haeng-Sun Kim, 2019. "Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Exporting Decision in Risk-averse and Risk-taking Firms," Working Papers hal-02128335, HAL.
    18. Alaali, Fatema, 2020. "The effect of oil and stock price volatility on firm level investment: The case of UK firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    19. Bo, Hong & Zhang, Zhihai, 2002. "The impact of uncertainty on firm investment: evidence from machinery industry in Liaoning province of China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 335-352, December.

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