IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/mgtdec/v46y2025i2p999-1011.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Perception of Policy Uncertainty and the Labor Income Share of Firms: Empirical Research Based on Double Machine Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Guiming Liao
  • Zheli Hu
  • Zhichen Yang
  • Qianlin Yin
  • Jiahui Chen

Abstract

Based on the double machine learning model, this study examines the impact of perception of policy uncertainty (PPU) on labor income share (LIS). We find that PPU negatively influences LIS. Mechanism test indicates that PPU not only results in a reduction in fixed asset investment, distorting human capital structure, but leads to a financing dilemma for firms, ultimately exerting a detrimental effect on LIS. Additionally, PPU primarily diminishes LIS of ordinary employees rather than executives. Furthermore, the inhibitory effect of PPU on LIS is significantly more pronounced in firms characterized by smaller union scales and those operating within monopolistic industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Guiming Liao & Zheli Hu & Zhichen Yang & Qianlin Yin & Jiahui Chen, 2025. "The Perception of Policy Uncertainty and the Labor Income Share of Firms: Empirical Research Based on Double Machine Learning," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 46(2), pages 999-1011, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:46:y:2025:i:2:p:999-1011
    DOI: 10.1002/mde.4416
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.4416
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/mde.4416?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Riccardo Pariboni & Pasquale Tridico, 2019. "Labour share decline, financialisation and structural change," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(4), pages 1073-1102.
    2. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    3. Momtaz, Paul P., 2021. "Entrepreneurial Finance and Moral Hazard: Evidence from Token Offerings," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 36(5).
    4. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    5. Ann E. Harrison & Margaret S. McMillan, 2022. "Does direct foreign investment affect domestic credit constraints?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 7, pages 153-180, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    7. Facundo Alvaredo & Lucas Chancel & Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2017. "Global Inequality Dynamics: New Findings from WID.world," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 404-409, May.
    8. Bhattacharya, Utpal & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Tian, Xuan & Xu, Yan, 2017. "What Affects Innovation More: Policy or Policy Uncertainty?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(5), pages 1869-1901, October.
    9. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2018. "The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(6), pages 1488-1542, June.
    10. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Chen, Chuanglian & Wang, Shudan & Yao, Shujie & Lin, Yuting, 2023. "Does digital transformation increase the labor income share? From a perspective of resources reallocation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Geng, Yini & Zheng, Zhiqiang & Ma, Yongjian, 2023. "Digitization, perception of policy uncertainty, and corporate green innovation: A study from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 544-557.
    13. Dang, Dandan & Fang, Hongsheng & He, Minyuan, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty, tax quotas and corporate tax burden: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.
    14. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    15. Wei, Xiahai & Jiang, Feng & Su, Yaqin, 2024. "More green, less labor gains? Green factory and labor income share in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    16. Hyunseob Kim & Howard Kung, 2017. "The Asset Redeployability Channel: How Uncertainty Affects Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 245-280.
    17. Huang, Ho-Chuan & Wang, Xiuhua & Xiong, Xin, 2022. "When macro time series meets micro panel data: A clear and present danger," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    18. Lexin Zhao & Qianbin Feng & Wen-Quan Hu, 2022. "Investment incentives and labor share: evidence from accelerated depreciation policy in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(41), pages 4751-4766, September.
    19. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2019. "Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2049-2103.
    20. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Zhu, Yun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and bank loan contracting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 281-286.
    21. Hong Bo, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Uncertainty and Firm Investment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 1-14, March.
    22. Li, Chengming & Huo, Peng & Wang, Zeyu & Zhang, Weiguang & Liang, Feiyan & Mardani, Abbas, 2023. "Digitalization generates equality? Enterprises’ digital transformation, financing constraints, and labor share in China," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    23. Thang Bach & Charles Harvie & Thanh Le, 2021. "How credit constraints affect small and medium enterprises' strategic employment decisions and employees' labour outcomes: Evidence from Vietnam1," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(2), pages 319-341, April.
    24. Yang, Jui-Chung & Chuang, Hui-Ching & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2020. "Double machine learning with gradient boosting and its application to the Big N audit quality effect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(1), pages 268-283.
    25. Yang, Wei & Meyer, Klaus E., 2015. "Competitive dynamics in an emerging economy: Competitive pressures, resources, and the speed of action," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1176-1185.
    26. Xiang Yan & Jenny Jing Wang & Ren Fang Zhang, 2024. "Allocation of decision‐making power and labour income share in listed companies: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(2), pages 1665-1692, June.
    27. Li, Jing & Nie, Huihua & Ruan, Rui & Shen, Xinyi, 2024. "Subjective perception of economic policy uncertainty and corporate social responsibility: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    28. Cui, Guanghui & Zhang, Yi & Ma, Jingwen & Yao, Wenyun, 2023. "Does environmental regulation affect the labor income share of manufacturing enterprises? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    29. Cheng, Rui & Li, Jing & Wu, Ting, 2024. "Competition policy and labor income share: Evidence from the antitrust policy in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 966-977.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sharon Belenzon & Victor Manuel Bennett & Andrea Patacconi, 2019. "Flexible Production and Entry: Institutional, Technological, and Organizational Determinants," Strategy Science, INFORMS, vol. 4(3), pages 193-216, September.
    2. Si, Deng-Kui & Meng, Mingyue & Wang, Jiaming & Zhou, Fuyou, 2024. "Does capital market liberalization increase corporate labor income share? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Athira, A. & Ramesh, Vishnu K., 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and tax avoidance: International evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty in banking: a literature review," MPRA Paper 108017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Huang, Ying Sophie & Wu, Jiajia & Guo, Feng, 2022. "Venture capital staging under economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 572-596.
    6. Tut, Daniel & Cao, Melanie, 2021. "Capital Reallocation and Firm-Level Productivity Under Political Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 108528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Enzo Valentini & Fabiano Compagnucci & Mauro Gallegati & Andrea Gentili, 2023. "Robotization, employment, and income: regional asymmetries and long-run policies in the Euro area," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(3), pages 737-771, July.
    8. Japan Huynh, 2025. "Banking uncertainty and corporate financial constraints," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 626-651, January.
    9. Han, Haozhe & Wang, Xingjian, 2023. "Monetary policy uncertainty and corporate cash holdings: Evidence from China," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Qianlong Ma & Bokun Hei & Guangchen Li, 2024. "Does economic policy uncertainty shorten the loan term structure? Evidence from China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1-25, August.
    11. Sharon Belenzon & Victor Manuel Bennett & Andrea Patacconi, 2019. "Flexible Production and Entry: Institutional, Technological, and Organizational Determinants," NBER Working Papers 25659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. D'Mello, Ranjan & Toscano, Francesca, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and short-term financing: The case of trade credit," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    13. Theodora Bermpei & Antonios Nikolaos Kalyvas & Lorenzo Neri & Antonella Russo, 2022. "Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 795-845, February.
    14. Hassan, M. Kabir & Karim, Md. Sydul & Kozlowski, Steven E., 2022. "Implications of public corruption for local firms: Evidence from corporate debt maturity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Zhu, Yongyi & Yu, Di, 2024. "Digital transformation and firms’ bargaining power: Evidence from China," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    16. Kim, Youngju & Lee, Seohyun & Lim, Hyunjoon, 2023. "Uncertainty, credit and investment: Evidence from firm-bank matched data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    17. Nguyen, Giang & Vo, Vinh, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty around the world: Implications for Vietnam," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    18. Xu, Zhaoxia, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty, cost of capital, and corporate innovation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    19. Cheng, Maoyong & Meng, Yu & Jin, Justin & Nainar, S.M. Khalid, 2024. "Leadership vacuum and corporate investment," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    20. Chuanzhen Li & Liang Zhao & Yiwen Zhang, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and cash dividend policy: evidence from China," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:mgtdec:v:46:y:2025:i:2:p:999-1011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/7976 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.