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Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates

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  • Pablo Neumeyer
  • Fabrizio Perri

Abstract

We find that in a sample of emerging economies business cycles are more volatile than in developed ones, real interest rates are countercyclical and lead the cycle, consumption is more volatile than output and net exports are strongly countercyclical. We present a model of a small open economy, where the real interest rate is decomposed in an international rate and a country risk component. Country risk is affected by fundamental shocks but, through the presence of working capital, also amplifies the effects of those shocks. The model generates business cycles consistent with Argentine data. Eliminating country risk lowers Argentine output volatility by 27% while stabilizing international rates lowers it by less than 3%.

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  • Pablo Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, . "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:335
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2008. "Crises in Emerging Markets Economies: A Global Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.), Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 3, pages 085-115, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Christian Hellwig, 2004. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates (A.E.R., December 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 338, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Bo Yang, 2011. "Informality, Frictions and Monetary Policy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0711, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    4. Díaz, Julián P., 2012. "Can enforcement constraints explain the patterns of capital flows after financial liberalizations?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1180-1194.
    5. Aleh Tsyvinski & Arijit Mukherji & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1769-1787, December.
    6. James D. Hamilton, 2005. "What's real about the business cycle?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jul), pages 435-452.
    7. Tiago Severo & Marcello M. Estevão, 2010. "Financial Shocks and TFP L4318Growth," IMF Working Papers 10/23, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ester Faia, 2007. "Welfare Implications of Capital Account Liberalization," CEIS Research Paper 92, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    9. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2018. "Inflation Targeting with Sovereign Default Risk," Department of Economics Working Papers 18-14, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    10. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Cao, Dan & L’Huillier, Jean-Paul, 2018. "Technological revolutions and the Three Great Slumps: A medium-run analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 93-108.
    12. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
    13. Arellano, Cristina & Bai, Yan & Mihalache, Gabriel, 2018. "Default risk, sectoral reallocation, and persistent recessions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 182-199.
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    22. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti, 2011. "The Costs and Benefits of Informality," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0211, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    23. Michele Cavallo & Kate Kisselev & Fabrizio Perri & Nouriel Roubini, "undated". "Exchange rate overshooting and the costs of floating," Proceedings y:2004:i:jun:x:5, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    24. Sevgi Coskun, 2016. "Labor Market Fluctuations in Developing Countries," EcoMod2016 9732, EcoMod.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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