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Country spreads and emerging countries

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  • Mart´in Uribe
  • Vivian Z. Yue

Abstract

A number of studies have stressed the role of movements in U.S. interest rates and country spreads in driving business cycles in emerging market economies. At the same time, country spreads have been found to respond to changes in both the U.S. interest rate and domestic conditions in emerging markets. These intricate interrelationships leave open a number of fundamental questions: Do country spreads drive business cycles in emerging countries or vice versa, or both? Do U.S. interest rates affect emerging countries directly or primarily through their effect on country spreads? This paper addresses these and other related questions using a methodology that combines empirical and theoretical elements. The main findings are: (1) U.S. interest rate shocks explain about 20 percent of movements in aggregate activity in emerging market economies at business-cycle frequency. (2) Country spread shocks explain about 12 percent of business-cycle movements in emerging economies. (3) About 60 percent of movements in country spreads are explained by country-spread shocks. (4) In response to an increase in U.S. interest rates, country spreads first fall and then display a large, delayed overshooting; (5) U.S.-interest-rate shocks affect domestic variables mostly through their effects on country spreads. (6) The fact that country spreads respond to business conditions in emerging economies significantly exacerbates aggregate volatility in these countries. (7) The U.S.-interest-rate shocks and country-spread shocks identified in this paper are plausible in the sense that they imply similar business cycles in the context of an empirical VAR model as they do in the context of a theoretical dynamic general equilibrium model of an emerging market economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Mart´in Uribe & Vivian Z. Yue, 2003. "Country spreads and emerging countries," Working Paper Series 2004-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2004-32
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp04-32bk.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abel, Andrew B, 1990. "Asset Prices under Habit Formation and Catching Up with the Joneses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 38-42, May.
    2. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    3. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    4. Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    6. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
    7. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    8. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    9. Uribe, Martin, 2002. "The price-consumption puzzle of currency pegs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 533-569, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Takeuchi, Fumihide, 2011. "The role of production fragmentation in international business cycle synchronization in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 441-459.
    2. Garima Vasishtha & Taimur Baig & Manmohan S. Kumar & Edda Zoli, 2006. "Fiscal and Monetary Nexus in Emerging Market Economies; How Does Debt Matter?," IMF Working Papers 06/184, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ivan Tchakarov & Selim Elekdag, 2006. "The role of interest rates in business cycle fluctuations in emerging countries: the case of Thailand," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 13(1), pages 53-73, June.
    4. Yue, Vivian Z., 2010. "Sovereign default and debt renegotiation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 176-187, March.
    5. Zhanwei Z. Yue & Samir Jahjah, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Bond Spreads in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/210, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Bonilla, Eugenio Diaz, 2008. "Global macroeconomic developments and poverty:," IFPRI discussion papers 766, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

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