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Understanding the Cross-Country Effects of US Technology Shocks

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  • Wataru Miyamoto
  • Thuy Lan Nguyen

Abstract

Business cycles are substantially correlated across countries. Yet most existing models are not able to generate substantial transmission through international trade. We show that the nature of such transmission depends fundamentally on the features determining the responsiveness of labor supply and labor demand to international relative prices. We augment a standard international macroeconomic model to incorporate three key features: a weak short-run wealth effect on labor supply, variable capital utilization, and imported intermediate inputs for production. This model can generate large and significant endogenous transmission of technology shocks through international trade. We demonstrate this by estimating the model using data for Canada and the United States with limited-information Bayesian methods. We find that this model can account for the substantial transmission of permanent US technology shocks to Canadian aggregate variables such as output and hours, documented in a structural vector autoregression. Transmission through international trade is found to explain the majority of the business cycle co-movement between the United States and Canada.

Suggested Citation

  • Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2017. "Understanding the Cross-Country Effects of US Technology Shocks," Staff Working Papers 17-23, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:17-23
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Wei & Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun, 2017. "Elastic attention, risk sharing, and international comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-20.
    2. Patrick A. Pintus & Yi Wen & Xiaochuan Xing, 2019. "International credit markets and global business cycles," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 15(1), pages 53-75, March.
    3. Tommaso Monacelli & Luca Sala & Daniele Siena, 2018. "Real Interest Rates and Productivity in Small Open Economies," Working papers 704, Banque de France.
    4. Gars, Johan & Olovsson, Conny, 2017. "International business cycles: quantifying the effects of a world market for oil," Working Paper Series 340, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    5. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2019. "International Linkages and the Changing Nature of International Business Cycles," CEI Working Paper Series 2018-16, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Elstner, Steffen & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2018. "The German productivity paradox: Facts and explanations," Ruhr Economic Papers 767, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Elstner, Steffen & Rujin, Svetlana, 2019. "The consequences of U.S. technology changes for productivity in advanced economies," Ruhr Economic Papers 796, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Andrei A. Levchenko & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2015. "TFP, News, and 'Sentiments': The International Transmission of Business Cycles," Working Papers 640, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    9. Letendre, Marc-André & Wagner, Joel, 2018. "Agency Costs, Risk Shocks, And International Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(05), pages 1134-1172, July.
    10. Nikhil Patel, 2016. "International Trade Finance and the Cost Channel of Monetary Policy in Open Economies," BIS Working Papers 539, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Economic models; International topics;

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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