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The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun

  • Andrei A. Levchenko

    (University of Michigan)

  • Logan Lewis

    (University of Michigan)

  • Linda L. Tesar

    (University of Michigan and National Bureau of Economic Research)

One of the most striking aspects of the recent recession is the collapse in international trade. This paper uses disaggregated quarterly and monthly data on U.S. imports and exports to shed light on the anatomy of this collapse. We find that the recent reduction in trade relative to overall economic activity is far larger than in previous downturns. Information on quantities and prices of both domestic absorption and imports reveals a more than 50% shortfall in imports, relative to what would be predicted by a simple import demand relationship. In a sample of imports and exports disaggregated at the 6-digit NAICS level, we find that sectors used as intermediate inputs experienced significantly higher percentage reductions in both imports and exports. We also find support for compositional effects: sectors with larger reductions in domestic output had larger drops in trade. By contrast, we find no support for the hypothesis that trade credit played a role in the recent trade collapse.

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Paper provided by Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan in its series Working Papers with number 592.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mie:wpaper:592
Contact details of provider: Postal: ANN ARBOR MICHIGAN 48109
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