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Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement

  • Robert C. Johnson

Does input trade synchronize business cycles across countries? I incorporate input trade into a dynamic multi-sector model with many countries, calibrate the model to match bilateral input-output data, and estimate trade-comovement regressions in simulated data. With correlated productivity shocks, the model yields high trade- comovement correlations for goods, but near-zero correlations for services and thus low aggregate correlations. With uncorrelated shocks, input trade generates more comovement in gross output than real value added. Goods comovement is higher when (a) the aggregate trade elasticity is low, (b) inputs are more substitutable than final goods, and (c) inputs are substitutable for primary factors.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18240.

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Date of creation: Jul 2012
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Publication status: forthcoming in The American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18240
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