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Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement

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  • Robert C. Johnson

Abstract

Does input trade synchronize business cycles across countries? I incorporate input trade into a dynamic multi-sector model with many countries, calibrate the model to match bilateral input-output data, and estimate trade-comovement regressions in simulated data. With correlated productivity shocks, the model yields high trade- comovement correlations for goods, but near-zero correlations for services and thus low aggregate correlations. With uncorrelated shocks, input trade generates more comovement in gross output than real value added. Goods comovement is higher when (a) the aggregate trade elasticity is low, (b) inputs are more substitutable than final goods, and (c) inputs are substitutable for primary factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert C. Johnson, 2012. "Trade in Intermediate Inputs and Business Cycle Comovement," NBER Working Papers 18240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18240
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    Cited by:

    1. Jörn Kleinert & Julien Martin & Farid Toubal, 2015. "The Few Leading the Many: Foreign Affiliates and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 134-159, October.
    2. Joseph Steinberg, 2018. "International Portfolio Diversification and the Structure of Global Production," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 195-219, July.
    3. Auer, Raphael A. & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2014. "Trade linkages and the globalisation of inflation in Asia and the Pacific," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 129-151.
    4. Arne J. Nagengast & Robert Stehrer, 2016. "The Great Collapse in Value Added Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 392-421, May.
    5. Liao, Wei & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 266-288.
    6. Isai Quispe, 2017. "Fiscal Shocks and International Production Networks: An Empirical Investigation," IHEID Working Papers 20-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. Juvenal, Luciana & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2017. "Trade and synchronization in a multi-country economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 385-415.
    8. repec:oup:qjecon:v:132:y:2017:i:2:p:921-962. is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Haifang Huang & Yao Tang, 2016. "How Did Exchange Rates Affect Employment In U.S. Cities?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(4), pages 678-697, October.
    10. Nikhil Patel & Zhi Wang & Shang-Jin Wei, 2014. "Global Value Chains and Effective Exchange Rates at the Country-Sector Level," NBER Working Papers 20236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Antoine Berthou & Hélène Ehrhart, 2017. "Trade networks and colonial trade spillovers," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 891-923, September.
    12. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2012. "Value-Added Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. repec:eee:inecon:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:143-164 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Vasco M. CARVALHO & NIREI Makoto & SAITO Yukiko, 2014. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," Discussion papers 14035, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Garbellini, Nadia, 2014. "International division of labour and countries’ competitiveness: the case of Italy and Germany," MPRA Paper 56542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kurz, Christopher & Senses, Mine Z., 2016. "Importing, exporting, and firm-level employment volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-175.
    17. Javier Cravino & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2017. "Multinational Firms and International Business Cycle Transmission," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(2), pages 921-962.
    18. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2016. "Input--output linkages and the propagation of domestic productivity shocks: assessing alternative theories with stochastic simulation," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 38-54, March.
    19. Roberto Roson & Martina Sartori, 2014. "Why can sectoral shocks lead to sizable macroeconomic fluctuations? Assessing alternative theories by means of stochastic simulation with a general equilibrium model," Working Papers 2014:16, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    20. Duval, Romain & Li, Nan & Saraf, Richa & Seneviratne, Dulani, 2016. "Value-added trade and business cycle synchronization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 251-262.
    21. Gong, Liutang & Wang, Chan & Zou, Heng-fu, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy with international trade in intermediate inputs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 140-165.
    22. Liutang Gong & Chan Wang & Heng-fu Zou, 2017. "Optimal Exchange-Rate Policy in a Model of Local-Currency Pricing with Vertical Production and Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 125-147, February.
    23. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2017. "Understanding the cross-country effects of U.S. technology shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 143-164.
    24. Eichengreen, Barry & Tong, Hui, 2015. "Effects of renminbi appreciation on foreign firms: The role of processing exports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 146-157.

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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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