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Vertical Specialization and International Business Cycle Synchronization

Author

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  • Ananth Ramanarayanan

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)

  • Costas Arkolakis

    (Yale University and NBER)

Abstract

We explore the impact of vertical specialization - trade in goods across multiple stages of production - on the relationship between trade and international business cycle synchronization. We develop a model in which the degree of vertical specialization is endogenously determined by comparative advantage across heterogeneous goods and varies with trade barriers between countries. We show analytically that fluctuations in measured productivity in our model are not linked across countries through trade, despite the greater transmission of technology shocks implied by higher degrees of vertical specialization. In numerical simulations, we find this transmission is insufficient in generating substantial dependence of business cycle synchronization on trade intensity.

Suggested Citation

  • Ananth Ramanarayanan & Costas Arkolakis, 2009. "Vertical Specialization and International Business Cycle Synchronization," 2009 Meeting Papers 780, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed009:780
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph Steinberg, 2018. "International Portfolio Diversification and the Structure of Global Production," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 195-219, July.
    2. Menzie Chinn, 2014. "Global supply chains and macroeconomic relationships in Asia," Chapters,in: Asia and Global Production Networks, chapter 8, pages 249-286 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2010. "Putting the Parts Together: Trade, Vertical Linkages, and Business Cycle Comovement," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 95-124, April.
    4. Liao, Wei & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 266-288.
    5. Cacciatore, Matteo, 2014. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with labor market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 17-30.
    6. Davis, J. Scott & Huang, Kevin X.D., 2011. "International real business cycles with endogenous markup variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 302-316.
    7. Juvenal, Luciana & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2017. "Trade and synchronization in a multi-country economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 385-415.
    8. Francois de Soyres, 2016. "Trade and Interdependence in International Networks," 2016 Meeting Papers 157, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. repec:fip:feddgm:00014 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Zlate, Andrei, 2016. "Offshore production and business cycle dynamics with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 34-49.
    11. Benjamin Bridgman, 2013. "International Supply Chains And The Volatility Of Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 2110-2124, October.
    12. Marion Jansen & Carolina Lennon & Roberta Piermartini, 2016. "Income volatility: whom you trade with matters," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 127-146, February.
    13. Ohdoi, Ryoji, 2017. "International Transmission of Financial Shocks without Financial Integration," MPRA Paper 83286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kurokawa, Yoshinori & Pang, Jiaren & Tang, Yao, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and wage comovements in a Ricardian model with money," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 96-109.
    15. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joe Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2012. "Trade, Inventories, and International Business Cycles," 2012 Meeting Papers 762, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Pundit,Madhavi, 2013. "Comovement in business cycles and trade in intermediate goods," Working Papers 13/116, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    17. Wong, Chin-Yoong & Eng, Yoke-Kee, 2013. "International business cycle co-movement and vertical specialization reconsidered in multistage Bayesian DSGE model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 109-124.
    18. Craighead, William, 2017. "Intermediate Goods and Exchange Rate Disconnect," MPRA Paper 83075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Jacob Wibe, 2012. "The Role of Production Sharing and Trade in the Transmission of the Great Recession," University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute Working Papers 20123, University of Western Ontario, Economic Policy Research Institute.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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