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The Trade-Comovement Puzzle

Author

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  • Lukasz A. Drozd
  • Sergey Kolbin
  • Jaromir B. Nosal

Abstract

Standard international transmission mechanism of productivity shocks predicts a weak endogenous linkage between trade and business cycle synchronization: a problem known as the trade-comovement puzzle. We provide the foundational analysis of the puzzle, pointing to three natural candidate resolutions: (i) financial market frictions, (ii) Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman preferences, and (iii) dynamic trade elasticity that is low in the short run but high in the long run. We show the effects of each of these candidate resolutions analytically and evaluate them quantitatively. We find that while (i) and (ii) fall short of the data, (iii) goes a long way toward resolving the puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukasz A. Drozd & Sergey Kolbin & Jaromir B. Nosal, 2021. "The Trade-Comovement Puzzle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 78-120, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:78-120
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170386
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    Cited by:

    1. François de Soyres, 2016. "Value Added and Productivity Linkages Across Countries," Working Papers 209, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    2. Daragh Clancy & Donal Smith & Vilém Valenta, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Reorientation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 151-191, April.
    3. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Burstein, Ariel & Kurz, Christopher & Tesar, Linda, 2008. "Trade, production sharing, and the international transmission of business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 775-795, May.
    5. Byrne, Shane & Devine, Kenneth & King, Michael & McCarthy, Yvonne & Palmer, Christopher, 2023. "The Last Mile of Monetary Policy: Inattention, Reminders, and the Refinancing Channel," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/23, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. Karabarbounis, Loukas, 2010. "Labor wedges and open economy puzzles," MPRA Paper 31370, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan, 2019. "International Linkages and the Changing Nature of International Business Cycles," CEI Working Paper Series 2018-16, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Trade and business cycle synchronization: The role of common trade partners," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 190-201.
    9. Costas Arkolakis & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2009. "Vertical Specialization and International Business Cycle Synchronization," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(4), pages 655-680, December.
    10. Liao, Wei & Santacreu, Ana Maria, 2015. "The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 266-288.
    11. Pundit,Madhavi, 2013. "Comovement in business cycles and trade in intermediate goods," Working Papers 13/116, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    12. Alok Johri & Terry Yip, 2017. "Financial Shocks,Supply-chain Relationships and the Great Trade Collapse," Department of Economics Working Papers 2017-11, McMaster University.
    13. Nestor Azcona, 2022. "Business Cycle Co-Movement in Europe: Trade, Industry Composition and the Single Currency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 121-139, February.
    14. Lisack No mie & Sajedi Rana & Lloyd Simon, 2022. "Aggregation Across Each Nation: Aggregator Choice and Macroeconomic Dynamics [Agr gation entre pays : choix d agr gateur et dynamiques macro conomiques]," Working papers 894, Banque de France.
    15. Dudley Cooke, 2019. "Technology Choice and the Long- and Short-Run Armington Elasticity," Globalization Institute Working Papers 373, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. de Soyres, François & Gaillard, Alexandre, 2022. "Global trade and GDP comovement," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    17. Oscar Avila-Montealegre & Carter Mix, 2020. "Common Trade Exposure and Business Cycle Comovement," International Finance Discussion Papers 1306, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. A. Berthou & E. Dhyne, 2018. "Exchange Rate Movements, Firm-Level Exports and Heterogeneity," Working papers 660, Banque de France.
    19. Alok Johri & Terry Yip, 2015. "Financial Shocks, Customer Capital and the Trade Collapse of 2008-2009," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015-13, McMaster University, revised Sep 2015.
    20. Gunnella, Vanessa & Al-Haschimi, Alexander & Benkovskis, Konstantins & Chiacchio, Francesco & de Soyres, François & Di Lupidio, Benedetta & Fidora, Michael & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Frohm, Erik & G, 2019. "The impact of global value chains on the euro area economy," Occasional Paper Series 221, European Central Bank.
    21. Nikhil Patel, 2016. "International Trade Finance and the Cost Channel of Monetary Policy in Open Economies," BIS Working Papers 539, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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