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The Last Mile of Monetary Policy: Inattention, Reminders, and the Refinancing Channel

Author

Listed:
  • Shane Byrne
  • Kenneth Devine
  • Michael King
  • Yvonne McCarthy
  • Christopher Palmer

Abstract

Under-refinancing limits the transmission of accommodative monetary policy to the household sector and costs mortgage holders in many countries a significant fraction of income annually. We test whether targeted communication can reduce the attention frictions that inhibit transmission by partnering with a large bank to analyze a field experiment testing messages sent to 12,000 Irish households. While we find only small effects of disclosure design improvements, a reminder letter increases refinancing by 76%, from 8.9% to 15.7%. To interpret this reminder effect, we extend and estimate a mixture model of inattentive financial decision-making to allow for disclosure treatment effects on attention. We find that reminders increase the likelihood mortgage holders are attentive by over 60%, from 24% to 39%. A conservative back-of-the-envelope cost-effectiveness calculation implies that the average reminder letter generated €42 of mortgagor consumption (€605 per refinancing household). Our results illustrate that targeted central bank communication such as refinancing reminders could have a larger effect on refinancing than a standard policy rate cut. Reminders could further strengthen the refinancing channel and stimulate local consumption even when policy rates are at the zero-lower bound or set in a monetary union.

Suggested Citation

  • Shane Byrne & Kenneth Devine & Michael King & Yvonne McCarthy & Christopher Palmer, 2023. "The Last Mile of Monetary Policy: Inattention, Reminders, and the Refinancing Channel," NBER Working Papers 31043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31043
    Note: CF ME
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    Cited by:

    1. Papadopoulos, Alexandros & McGowan, Féidhlim & McGinnity, Frances & Timmons, Shane & Lunn, Pete, 2023. "Switching activity in retail financial markets in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS161, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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