IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mar/magkse/202215.html

Lockdown Spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Hongyi Chen

    (Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research)

  • Peter Tillmann

    (University of Giessen)

Abstract

Lockdowns imposed to fight the Covid-19 pandemic have cross-border effects. In this paper, we estimate the empirical magnitude of lockdown spillovers in a set of panel local projections. We use daily indicators of economic activity such as stock returns, effective exchange rates, NO2 emissions, mobility and maritime container trade. Lockdown shocks originating in the most important trading partners have a strong and significant adverse effect on economic activity in the home economy. For stock prices and exports, the spillovers can even be larger than the effect of domestic lockdown shocks. The results are robust with respect to alternative country weights used to construct foreign shocks, i.e. weights based on foreign direct investment or the connectedness through value chains. We find that lockdown spillovers have been particularly strong during the first wave of the pandemic. Countries with a higher export share are particularly exposed to lockdown spillovers.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongyi Chen & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Lockdown Spillovers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202215, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202215
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/en/fb02/research-groups/economics/macroeconomics/research/magks-joint-discussion-papers-in-economics/papers/2022-papers/15-2022_chen.pdf
    File Function: First 202215
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Hale & Noam Angrist & Rafael Goldszmidt & Beatriz Kira & Anna Petherick & Toby Phillips & Samuel Webster & Emily Cameron-Blake & Laura Hallas & Saptarshi Majumdar & Helen Tatlow, 2021. "A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker)," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(4), pages 529-538, April.
    2. Rebecca Freeman & Richard Baldwin, 2022. "Risks and Global Supply Chains: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 153-180, August.
    3. Vasco M Carvalho & Makoto Nirei & Yukiko U Saito & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2021. "Supply Chain Disruptions: Evidence from the Great East Japan Earthquake," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(2), pages 1255-1321.
    4. Rebucci, Alessandro & Elenev, Vadim & , & Simeonova, Emilia, 2021. "Direct and Spillover Effects from Staggered Adoption of Health Policies: Evidence from Covid-19 Stay-at-Home Orders," CEPR Discussion Papers 16649, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    5. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    6. Cacciatore, Matteo & Duval, Romain & Furceri, Davide & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2021. "Fiscal multipliers and job-protection regulation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Patricio Goldstein & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luca Sartorio, 2021. "Lockdown fatigue: The diminishing effects of quarantines on the spread of COVID-19," School of Government Working Papers 20210101, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    8. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    9. Bonadio, Barthélémy & Huo, Zhen & Levchenko, Andrei A. & Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya, 2021. "Global supply chains in the pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Kuester, Keith & Corsetti, Giancarlo & Müller, Gernot & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2021. "The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 15689, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    11. repec:udt:wpecon:wp_gob_2021_01 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Souknilanh Keola & Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2021. "Do Lockdown Policies Reduce Economic and Social Activities? Evidence from NO2 Emissions," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 59(2), pages 178-205, June.
    13. Dabo Guan & Daoping Wang & Stephane Hallegatte & Steven J. Davis & Jingwen Huo & Shuping Li & Yangchun Bai & Tianyang Lei & Qianyu Xue & D’Maris Coffman & Danyang Cheng & Peipei Chen & Xi Liang & Bing, 2020. "Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(6), pages 577-587, June.
    14. Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2022. "Covid-19 and Capital Flows: The Responses of Investors to the Responses of Governments," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 751-774, September.
    15. Mr. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Andras Komaromi & Yang Liu & Mamoon Saeed, 2020. "World Seaborne Trade in Real Time: A Proof of Concept for Building AIS-based Nowcasts from Scratch," IMF Working Papers 2020/057, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    17. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    18. Philipp Engler & Nathalie Pouokam & Diego Rodriguez Guzman & Mrs. Irina Yakadina, 2020. "The Great Lockdown: International Risk Sharing Through Trade and Policy Coordination," IMF Working Papers 2020/242, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Jasper Verschuur & Elco E Koks & Jim W Hall, 2021. "Global economic impacts of COVID-19 lockdown measures stand out in high-frequency shipping data," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-16, April.
    20. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Lutz Kilian & Yun Jung Kim, 2011. "How Reliable Are Local Projection Estimators of Impulse Responses?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1460-1466, November.
    22. Diego A. Cerdeiro & Andras Komaromi, 2022. "Supply spillovers during the pandemic: Evidence from high‐frequency shipping data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(11), pages 3451-3474, November.
    23. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
    24. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Hiroshi Mukunoki, 2021. "Impacts of Lockdown Policies on International Trade," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 123-141, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Klose, Jens & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Stock market response to Covid-19, containment measures and stabilization policies—The case of Europe," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 29-44.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Hongyi & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Lockdown spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Goodhart, Charles, 2022. "Ben S. Bernanke: 21st century monetary policy: the federal reserve from the great inflation to COVID-19. W.W. Norton & Company, 2022," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115779, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Sebestyén, Tamás & Szabó, Norbert & Braun, Emese & Bedő, Zsolt, 2024. "Lokális reziliencia számítása térbeli általános egyensúlyi modell felhasználásával [Measuring local resilience with a spatial computable general equilibrium model]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 1222-1253.
    4. Shane Byrne & Kenneth Devine & Michael King & Yvonne McCarthy & Christopher Palmer, 2023. "The Last Mile of Monetary Policy: Inattention, Reminders, and the Refinancing Channel," NBER Working Papers 31043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Chang Ma & John Rogers & Sili Zhou, 2023. "Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2098-2130.
    6. Rujin, Svetlana, 2024. "Labor market institutions and technology-induced labor adjustment along the extensive and intensive margins," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Jean-Marie Dufour & Endong Wang, 2025. "Causal mechanism and mediation analysis for macroeconomics dynamics: a bridge of Granger and Sims causality," Papers 2509.05284, arXiv.org.
    8. Jean-Charles Bricongne & Juan Carluccio & Lionel Gérard Fontagné & Guillaume Gaulier & Sebastian Stumpner, 2022. "From Macro to Micro: Large Exporters Coping with Common Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 9857, CESifo.
    9. Fraiberger, Samuel P. & Lee, Do & Puy, Damien & Ranciere, Romain, 2021. "Media sentiment and international asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Daragh Clancy & Donal Smith & Vilém Valenta, 2024. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Supply Chain Reorientation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 20(2), pages 151-191, April.
    11. Cajal-Grossi, Julia & Del Prete, Davide & Macchiavello, Rocco, 2023. "Supply chain disruptions and sourcing strategies," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Tovar Jalles, João & Park, Donghyun & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Public and Private Investment as Catalysts for Growth: An analysis of emerging markets and developing economies with a focus on Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    13. Mitsuyo ANDO & Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Shujiro URATA & Kenta YAMANOUCHI, 2025. "Intra-firm Networks during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Discussion papers 25040, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    14. Kiss, Tibor & Braun, Erik & Sebestyén, Tamás, 2025. "Production network structure, specialization and unemployment: Measuring the structural resilience of national economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 11-28.
    15. Márta Bisztray & Gábor Békés & Alexandros Charos & Klaus Friesenbichler & Miklós Koren & Agnes Kügler & Balázs Lengyel & Amanda De Pirro & Birgit Meyer, 2025. "The Supply Chain Disruption Survey: A new survey on knowledge flows in global supply chains," KRTK-KTI WORKING PAPERS 2517, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    16. Maciej Stefański, 2022. "GDP effects of pandemics: a historical perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(6), pages 2949-2995, December.
    17. Jing Lian Suah, 2024. "The "plucking" model of the unemployment rate floor: Corss-country estimates and empirics," BIS Working Papers 1159, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. João Tovar Jalles & Donghyun Park & Irfan Qureshi, 2024. "Public versus Private Investment Multipliers in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Cross-Country Analysis with a Focus on Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 737, Asian Development Bank.
    19. Chang Ma & John H. Rogers & Sili Zhou, 2020. "Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery," International Finance Discussion Papers 1295, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Zhang, Xiaoxu & Li, Jiale & Li, Yuze & Zhu, Kunfu & Xu, Jian & Wang, Shouyang, 2026. "U.S. Trade policy and the restructuring of global production networks: A case study of industrial relocation from China to India," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 66-79.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202215. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bernd Hayo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vamarde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.