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Impacts of lockdown policies on international trade

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  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu
  • Mukunoki, Hiroshi

Abstract

The aim of this study is to quantify how lockdown policies implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic affected international trade in the first half of 2020. We examine monthly world trade data between January and June in both 2019 and 2020. Our findings can be summarized as follows. Stay-at-home orders did not have significant and robust effects on trade. Negative effects were found in only some industries, including those producing durable products and essential products. However, workplace closures had significantly negative effects on trade, except for intra-Asian trade. These effects of workplace closures can be found in most industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi, 2020. "Impacts of lockdown policies on international trade," IDE Discussion Papers 798, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper798
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    3. Gonzalez-Eiras, Martin & Niepelt, Dirk, 2020. "On the Optimal "Lockdown" During an Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 14612, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    5. Carvalho, V & Garcia, Juan R. & Hansen, S. & Ortiz, A. & Rodrigo, T. & More, J. V. R., 2020. "Tracking the COVID-19 Crisis with High-Resolution Transaction Data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2030, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kazunobu Hayakawa & Hiroshi Mukunoki & Shujiro Urata, 2023. "Can e-commerce mitigate the negative impact of COVID-19 on international trade?," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 215-232, April.
    2. Yuting Chen & Bin Ni, 2024. "The Effect of COVID-19 on Firms' Behaviour: The Case of Japan," Working Papers DP-2023-34, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Anamaria Diana Sova & Robert Sova, 2024. "The Covid‐19 pandemic and European trade flows: Evidence from a dynamic panel model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2563-2580, July.
    4. Ahn, Soojung & Steinbach, Sandro, 2023. "Agri-food trade resilience among food-deficit countries during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 26(3), January.
    5. Ando, Mitsuyo & Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on trade in services," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Hongyi Chen & Peter Tillmann, 2022. "Lockdown Spillovers," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202215, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Chen, Hongyi & Tillmann, Peter, 2023. "Lockdown spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Miguel Cardoso & Brandon Malloy, 2024. "Spillovers from government policy during a crisis: Evidence from international trade during COVID‐19 lockdowns," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 1238-1269, August.
    9. Marten Brienen & Lixia H. Lambert & Dayton M. Lambert & John Schoeneman, 2023. "A social network analysis approach to estimate export disruption spread in the US during the Covid-19 pandemic: how policy response and industry ties relate," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 50(4), pages 943-961, December.
    10. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Mukunoki, Hiroshi, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on international trade: Evidence from the first shock," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Orhan Cengiz & Müge Manga, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on exports: new evidence from selected European Union countries and Turkey," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1195-1219, October.
    12. Ali Keshavarzi & Shokooh Mahmoodi & Hamid Reza Horry, 2024. "Investigating the economic and environmental effects of a pandemic and its policy responses: a Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(11), pages 29269-29292, November.
    13. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Keola, Souknilanh & Urata, Shujiro, 2022. "How effective was the restaurant restraining order against COVID-19? A nighttime light study in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Kiyota, Kozo, 2022. "The COVID-19 pandemic and the world trade network," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    15. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Hyun-Hoon, Lee & Cyn-Young, Park, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 on foreign direct investment," IDE Discussion Papers 831, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    16. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Keola, Souknilanh, 2021. "How is the Asian economy recovering from COVID-19? Evidence from the emissions of air pollutants," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Qi, Bitian & Shen, Yanbo & Xu, Tieyu, 2023. "An artificial-intelligence-enabled sustainable supply chain model for B2C E-commerce business in the international trade," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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