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Lockdown fatigue: The diminishing effects of quarantines on the spread of COVID-19

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  • Patricio Goldstein
  • Eduardo Levy Yeyati

  • Luca Sartorio

Abstract

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) have been for most countries the key policy instrument utilized to contain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of these policies on the virus’ transmission and death toll, for a panel of 152 countries, from the start of the pandemic through December 31, 2020. We find that lockdowns tend to significantly reduce the spread of the virus and the number of related deaths. We also show that this benign impact declines over time: after four months of strict lockdown, NPIs have a significantly weaker contribution in terms of their effect in reducing COVID-19 related fatalities. Part of the fading effect of quarantines could be attributed to an increasing non-compliance with mobility restrictions, as reflected in our estimates of a declining effect of lockdowns on measures of actual mobility. However, we additionally find that a reduction in de facto mobility also exhibits a diminishing effect on health outcomes, which suggests that lockdown fatigues may have introduce broader hurdles to containment policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricio Goldstein & Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luca Sartorio, 2021. "Lockdown fatigue: The diminishing effects of quarantines on the spread of COVID-19," School of Government Working Papers 20210101, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    • Handle: RePEc:udt:wpgobi:20210101
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    1. Eduardo Levi Yeyati & Luca Sartorio, 2020. "Take me out: De facto limits on strict lockdowns in developing countries," Working Papers 15, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    2. Askitas, Nikos & Tatsiramos, Konstantinos & Verheyden, Bertrand, 2020. "Lockdown Strategies, Mobility Patterns and COVID-19," IZA Discussion Papers 13293, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Mr. Pragyan Deb & Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Nour Tawk, 2020. "The Effect of Containment Measures on the COVID-19 Pandemic," IMF Working Papers 2020/159, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Luca Sartorio, 2020. "Take me out: De facto limits on strict lockdowns in developing countries," Department of Economics Working Papers wp_gob_2020_08, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
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