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Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices

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  • Fraiberger,Samuel Paul
  • Lee,Do
  • Puy,Damien
  • Rancier,Romain

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of media sentiment on international equity prices using a dataset of more than 4.5 million Reuters articles published across the globe between 1991 and 2015. Media sentiment robustly predicts daily returns in both advanced and emerging markets, even after controlling for known determinants of stock prices. But not all news sentiment is alike. A local (country-specific) increase in news optimism (pessimism) predicts a small and transitory increase (decrease) in local returns. By contrast, changes in global news sentiment have a larger impact on equity returns around the world, which does not reverse in the short run. Media sentiment affects mainly foreign -- rather than local -- investors: although local news optimism attracts international equity flows for a few days, global news optimism generates a permanent foreign equity inflow. Our results confirm the value of media content in capturing investor sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Fraiberger,Samuel Paul & Lee,Do & Puy,Damien & Rancier,Romain, 2018. "Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8649, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8649
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F. & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Examining the sources of excess return predictability: Stochastic volatility or market inefficiency?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 50-72.
    3. Benhima, Kenza & Cordonier, Rachel, 2022. "News, sentiment and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. A. Fronzetti Colladon & F. Grippa & B. Guardabascio & G. Costante & F. Ravazzolo, 2021. "Forecasting consumer confidence through semantic network analysis of online news," Papers 2105.04900, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    5. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Pérez & Elena Vidal, 2022. "Using newspapers for textual indicators: which and how many?," Working Papers 2235, Banco de España.
    6. Dim, Chukwuma & Koerner, Kevin & Wolski, Marcin & Zwart, Sanne, 2022. "Hot off the press: News-implied sovereign default risk," EIB Working Papers 2022/06, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    7. A. Fronzetti Colladon & S. Grassi & F. Ravazzolo & F. Violante, 2020. "Forecasting financial markets with semantic network analysis in the COVID-19 crisis," Papers 2009.04975, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    8. Vu Le Tran & Guillaume Coqueret, 2023. "ESG news spillovers across the value chain," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(4), pages 677-710, December.
    9. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2022. "Cross-border portfolio flows and news media coverage," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Vu Le Tran & Guillaume Coqueret, 2023. "ESG news spillovers across the value chain," Post-Print hal-04325746, HAL.
    11. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Karabulut, Gokhan & Kaya, Huseyin, 2019. "A novel index of macroeconomic uncertainty for Turkey based on Google-Trends," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    12. Stéphane Goutte & Viet Hoang Le & Fei Liu & Hans-Jörg Mettenheim, Von, 2023. "Esg Investing: A Sentiment Analysis Approach," Working Papers halshs-03917335, HAL.
    13. Cécile Couharde & Hamza Bennani & Yoan Wallois, 2021. "Do IMF Reports Affect Market Expectations ? A Sentiment Analysis Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-6, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    14. Basak, Gopal K. & Das, Pranab Kumar & Marjit, Sugata & Mukherjee, Debashis & Yang, Lei, 2023. "The British Stock Market, currencies, brexit, and media sentiments: A big data analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Gopal K. Basak & Pranab Kumar Das & Sugata Marjit & Debashis Mukherjee & Lei Yang, 2019. "British Stock Market, BREXIT and Media Sentiments - A Big Data Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 7760, CESifo.
    16. Barrett, Philip & Appendino, Maximiliano & Nguyen, Kate & de Leon Miranda, Jorge, 2022. "Measuring social unrest using media reports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    17. Zaremba, Adam & Szyszka, Adam & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Herding for profits: Market breadth and the cross-section of global equity returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 348-364.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment and Investment Climate; Commodity Risk Management; International Trade and Trade Rules; Non Bank Financial Institutions; Mutual Funds; Securities Markets Policy&Regulation; Capital Markets and Capital Flows; Capital Flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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