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Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices

Author

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  • Samuel P. Fraiberger
  • Dongyeol Lee
  • Mr. Damien Puy
  • Mr. Romain Ranciere

Abstract

We assess the impact of media sentiment on international equity prices using more than 4.5 million Reuters articles published across the globe between 1991 and 2015. News sentiment robustly predicts daily returns in both advanced and emerging markets, even after controlling for known determinants of stock prices. But not all news-sentiment is alike. A local (country-specific) increase in news optimism (pessimism) predicts a small and transitory increase (decrease) in local returns. By contrast, changes in global news sentiment have a larger impact on equity returns around the world, which does not reverse in the short run. We also find evidence that news sentiment affects mainly foreign – rather than local – investors: although local news optimism attracts international equity flows for a few days, global news optimism generates a permanent foreign equity inflow. Our results confirm the value of media content in capturing investor sentiment.

Suggested Citation

  • Samuel P. Fraiberger & Dongyeol Lee & Mr. Damien Puy & Mr. Romain Ranciere, 2018. "Media Sentiment and International Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2018/274, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/274
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    6. A. Fronzetti Colladon & F. Grippa & B. Guardabascio & G. Costante & F. Ravazzolo, 2021. "Forecasting consumer confidence through semantic network analysis of online news," Papers 2105.04900, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    7. Vu Le Tran & Guillaume Coqueret, 2023. "ESG news spillovers across the value chain," Post-Print hal-04325746, HAL.
    8. Erik Andres-Escayola & Corinna Ghirelli & Luis Molina & Javier J. Pérez & Elena Vidal, 2022. "Using newspapers for textual indicators: which and how many?," Working Papers 2235, Banco de España.
    9. Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin & Demir, Ender & Gozgor, Giray & Karabulut, Gokhan & Kaya, Huseyin, 2019. "A novel index of macroeconomic uncertainty for Turkey based on Google-Trends," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    10. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Caporin, Massimiliano & Cepni, Oguzhan, 2024. "Not all words are equal: Sentiment and jumps in the cryptocurrency market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    11. Stéphane Goutte & Viet Hoang Le & Fei Liu & Hans-Jörg Mettenheim, Von, 2023. "Esg Investing: A Sentiment Analysis Approach," Working Papers halshs-03917335, HAL.
    12. Cécile Couharde & Hamza Bennani & Yoan Wallois, 2021. "Do IMF Reports Affect Market Expectations ? A Sentiment Analysis Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2021-6, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Dim, Chukwuma & Koerner, Kevin & Wolski, Marcin & Zwart, Sanne, 2022. "Hot off the press: News-implied sovereign default risk," EIB Working Papers 2022/06, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    14. A. Fronzetti Colladon & S. Grassi & F. Ravazzolo & F. Violante, 2020. "Forecasting financial markets with semantic network analysis in the COVID-19 crisis," Papers 2009.04975, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
    15. Basak, Gopal K. & Das, Pranab Kumar & Marjit, Sugata & Mukherjee, Debashis & Yang, Lei, 2023. "The British Stock Market, currencies, brexit, and media sentiments: A big data analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Shuyi Li & Junhao Kong & Stefan Cristian Gherghina, 2022. "News Sentiment and the Risk of a Stock Price Crash Risk: Based on Financial Dictionary Combined BERT-DCA," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2022, pages 1-28, July.
    17. Gopal K. Basak & Pranab Kumar Das & Sugata Marjit & Debashis Mukherjee & Lei Yang, 2019. "British Stock Market, BREXIT and Media Sentiments - A Big Data Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 7760, CESifo.
    18. Barrett, Philip & Appendino, Maximiliano & Nguyen, Kate & de Leon Miranda, Jorge, 2022. "Measuring social unrest using media reports," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    19. Zaremba, Adam & Szyszka, Adam & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas & Mikutowski, Mateusz, 2021. "Herding for profits: Market breadth and the cross-section of global equity returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 348-364.
    20. Jia, Zhehao & Li, Donghui & Shi, Yukun & Xing, Lu, 2023. "Firm-level media news, bank loans, and the role of institutional environments," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    21. Rogmann, Jennifer & Beckmann, Joscha & Gaschler, Robert & Landmann, Helen, 2024. "Media sentiment emotions and consumer energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    22. Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Cepeda, Ana & Panizza, Ugo, 2024. "Environmental Damage News and Stock Returns: Evidence from Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13537, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; equity fund; Asset Pricing; Capital Flows; Behavioral Finance; Investor Sentiment; News Media; Natural Language Processing; sentiment shock; sentiment index; state dependence; D. News sentiment; multi-country news; equity return; equity price; Stocks; Asset prices; Stock markets; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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