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Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals

Author

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  • Cerutti, Eugenio

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Claessens, Stijn

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Puy, Damien

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the behavior of gross capital inflows across 34 emerging markets (EMs), including eight Asian economies. We first confirm that aggregate inflows to EMs comove considerably. Three findings are reported: (i) the aggregate comovement conceals significant heterogeneity across asset types as only bank-related and portfolio bond and equity inflows comove; (ii) while global push factors in advanced economies mostly explain the common dynamics, their relative importance varies by type of flow; and (iii) the sensitivity to common dynamics varies significantly across borrower countries, with market structure characteristics (especially the composition of the foreign investor base and the level of liquidity) rather than a borrower country’s institutional fundamentals strongly affecting sensitivities. Countries relying more on international funds and global banks are found to be more sensitive to push factors. Our findings suggest that EMs need to closely monitor their lenders and investors to assess their inflow exposures to global push factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Puy, Damien, 2017. "Push Factors and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Why Knowing Your Lender Matters More Than Fundamentals," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 528, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0528
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; emerging markets; global banks; mutual funds; push factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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