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The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Binici, Mahir
  • Hutchison, Michael M

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of tapering “news” announcements by Fed senior policy makers on financial markets in emerging economies. We apply a panel framework using daily data, and find that emerging market asset prices respond most to statements by Fed Chairman Bernanke, and much less to other Fed officials. We group emerging markets into those with “robust” fundamentals (current account surpluses, high international reserves and low external debt) and those with “fragile” fundamentals and, intriguingly, find that the exchange rates of the robust group (and lesser extend equity prices and CDS spreads) were more adversely affected to tapering news than the fragile group. The cumulative effects of tapering announcements after a month, however, appear to be quite similar for both robust and fragile emerging markets. We also show that more financially developed economies are more impacted by tapering news and a plausible interpretation is that more financially developed economies are more exposed, at least in the short-term, to external news announcements.
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Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua & Binici, Mahir & Hutchison, Michael M, 2014. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7n17z9km, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt7n17z9km
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dooley, Michael & Hutchison, Michael, 2009. "Transmission of the U.S. subprime crisis to emerging markets: Evidence on the decoupling-recoupling hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1331-1349, December.
    2. Madhusudan Mohanty, 2014. "The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets - An overview," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 1-24, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2013. "What is the risk of European sovereign debt defaults? Fiscal space, CDS spreads and market pricing of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 37-59.
    4. Fernanda Nechio, 2014. "Fed tapering news and emerging markets," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    6. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael Hutchison, 2013. "Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 582-609, AUTUMN.
    7. Mondria, Jordi & Wu, Thomas & Zhang, Yi, 2010. "The determinants of international investment and attention allocation: Using internet search query data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 85-95, September.
    8. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    9. Sims, Christopher A., 2010. "Rational Inattention and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 4, pages 155-181, Elsevier.
    10. Jerome H. Powell, 2013. "Advanced economy monetary policy and emerging market economies," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 1-17.
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    Keywords

    Social and Behavioral Sciences;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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