IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v66y2016icp65-87.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange market pressure in OECD and emerging economies: Domestic vs. external factors and capital flows in the old and new normal

Author

Listed:
  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Binici, Mahir

Abstract

We study the ways domestic and external global factors (such as risk appetite, global liquidity, U.S. monetary policy, and commodity prices) affected the exchange market pressure before and after the global financial crisis, as well as the role of these factors during the Federal Reserve's tapering episode. Utilizing a comprehensive database on capital controls, we investigate whether control measures have a significant impact on mitigating exchange market pressure associated with capital flows [net and gross]. Using quarterly data over the 2000–2014 period and a dynamic panel model estimation, we find that external factors played a significant role in driving exchange market pressure for both OECD countries and emerging market countries, with a larger impact on the latter. While the effect of net capital flows on exchange market pressure is muted, short-term gross portfolio inflows and outflows comprise important factors that account for exchange market pressure. Short-term portfolio flows and long-term foreign direct investment flows have a significant impact on exchange market pressure for emerging market economies and no significant effect for OECD countries. Capital controls seem to significantly reduce the exchange market pressure, although the economic size of this impact is highly dependent on the institutional quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua & Binici, Mahir, 2016. "Exchange market pressure in OECD and emerging economies: Domestic vs. external factors and capital flows in the old and new normal," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 65-87.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:66:y:2016:i:c:p:65-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.12.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560615002144
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feldkircher, Martin & Horvath, Roman & Rusnak, Marek, 2014. "Exchange market pressures during the financial crisis: A Bayesian model averaging evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 21-41.
    2. repec:eee:inecon:v:115:y:2018:i:c:p:48-58 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics,in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
    5. Falk Mazelis, 2014. "Monetary Policy Effects on Financial Intermediation via the Regulated and the Shadow Banking Systems," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-056, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    6. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee & Vladyslav Sushko, 2012. "From the Great Moderation to the Global Crisis: Exchange Market Pressure in the 2000s," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 597-621, September.
    7. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross‐Country Causes And Consequences Of The 2008 Crisis: International Linkages And American Exposure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 340-363, August.
    8. Wei Liao & Sampawende J Tapsoba, 2014. "China’s Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Liberalization; Lessons from International Experiences," IMF Working Papers 14/75, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    10. Madhusudan Mohanty, 2014. "The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets - An overview," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 1-24 Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian Maria Milesi‐Ferretti & Jaewoo Lee, 2013. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross‐Country Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 845-865, August.
    12. Aizenman, Joshua & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2013. "Why do emerging markets liberalize capital outflow controls? Fiscal versus net capital flow concerns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-64.
    13. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    14. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2016. "Monetary policy spillovers and the trilemma in the new normal: Periphery country sensitivity to core country conditions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 298-330.
    15. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2012. "Financial system reforms and China's monetary policy framework : A DSGE-based assessment of initiatives and proposals," BOFIT Discussion Papers 30/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    16. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    17. Combes, Jean-Louis & Kinda, Tidiane & Plane, Patrick, 2012. "Capital flows, exchange rate flexibility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1034-1043.
    18. Nicolas Magud & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2007. "Capital Controls: An Evaluation," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 645-674 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael M. Hutchison, 2016. "The Transmission of Federal Reserve Tapering News to Emerging Financial Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(2), pages 317-356, June.
    20. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Monetary and financial stability implications of capital flows in Latin America and the Caribbean," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 43, July.
    21. Michael P. Dooley, 1996. "A Survey of Literature on Controls over International Capital Transactions," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(4), pages 639-687, December.
    22. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 83-103.
    23. Torsten Ehlers & Frank Packer, 2013. "FX and derivatives markets in emerging economies and the internationalisation of their currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    24. Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, "undated". "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning," Working Papers 6, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    25. Bruno, Valentina & Shim, Ilhyock & Shin, Hyun Song, 2017. "Comparative assessment of macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 183-202.
    26. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2005. "Law, finance, and economic growth in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 57-116, July.
    27. Elod Takáts & Abraham Vela, 2014. "International monetary policy transmission," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 25-44 Bank for International Settlements.
    28. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1996. "Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_96-1.
    29. Klaassen, Franc & Jager, Henk, 2011. "Definition-consistent measurement of exchange market pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 74-95, February.
    30. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    31. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    32. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    33. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    34. Binici, Mahir & Hutchison, Michael & Schindler, Martin, 2010. "Controlling capital? Legal restrictions and the asset composition of international financial flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 666-684, June.
    35. Li, Cindy, 2013. "Shadow banking in China: expanding scale, evolving structure," Asia Focus, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
    36. Bassem M Kamar & Damyana Bakardzhieva & Samy Ben Naceur & Sami Ben Naceur, 2010. "The Impact of Capital and Foreign Exchange Flowson the Competitiveness of Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 10/154, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November.
    38. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1996. "Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226386713, April.
    39. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    40. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    41. F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013. "(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
    42. Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno & Lawrence J. Christiano, 2010. "Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations," 2010 Meeting Papers 141, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    43. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2018. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 330-377, February.
    44. Luck, Stephan & Schempp, Paul, 2014. "Banks, shadow banking, and fragility," Working Paper Series 1726, European Central Bank.
    45. Acharya, Viral V. & Schnabl, Philipp & Suarez, Gustavo, 2013. "Securitization without risk transfer," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 515-536.
    46. Guillaume Plantin, 2015. "Shadow Banking and Bank Capital Regulation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(1), pages 146-175.
    47. Prema-Chandra Athukorala & Sarath Rajapatirana, 2003. "Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 613-637, April.
    48. Robin Brooks & Hali Edison & Manmohan S. Kumar & Torsten Sløk, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Capital Flows," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(3), pages 511-533, September.
    49. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 531-543.
    50. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz & Qianying Chen,, 2012. "Market and Non-Market Monetary Policy Tools in a Calibrated DSGE Model for Mainland China," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21207, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    51. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    52. Jaromir Benes & Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2014. "Financial Crises in DSGE Models; A Prototype Model," IMF Working Papers 14/57, International Monetary Fund.
    53. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1996. "Introduction to "Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 5"," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Deregulation and Integration in East Asia, pages 1-5 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael M., 2012. "Exchange market pressure and absorption by international reserves: Emerging markets and fear of reserve loss during the 2008–2009 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1076-1091.
    55. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    56. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    57. Eichengreen, Barry & Gupta, Poonam, 2015. "Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-15.
    58. Jongwanich, Juthathip & Kohpaiboon, Archanun, 2013. "Capital flows and real exchange rates in emerging Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 138-146.
    59. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    60. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    61. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Commodity Terms of Trade; The History of Booms and Busts," IMF Working Papers 09/205, International Monetary Fund.
    62. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    63. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
    64. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    65. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
    66. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:14 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:08 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:ecofin:v:48:y:2019:i:c:p:498-513 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:ememar:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:173-188 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:10 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Disyatat, Piti & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial spillovers: Losing traction?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 115-136.
    7. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:04 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:01 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Eleonora Cavallaro & Eleonora Cutrini, 2018. "Institutional quality and cross-border asset trade: are banks less worried about diversification abroad?," Working Papers 186, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
    10. Andreas Steiner & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2017. "Exit Strategies, Capital Flight and Speculative Attacks: Europe's Version of the Trilemma," CESifo Working Paper Series 6753, CESifo Group Munich.
    11. Özmen, M. Utku & Yılmaz, Erdal, 2017. "Co-movement of exchange rates with interest rate differential, risk premium and FED policy in “fragile economies”," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 173-188.
    12. Joshua Aizenman, 2016. "International Coordination and Precautionary Policies," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 379-391, July.
    13. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:13 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:12 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:09 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:06 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Abdul Aziz, Muhammad & Widodo, Tri, 2017. "Exchange Market Pressure: Evidences from ASEAN Inflation Targeting Countries," MPRA Paper 80919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:15 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:07 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Gardberg, Malin, 2018. "Linking Net Foreign Portfolio Debt and Equity to Exchange Rate Movements," Working Paper Series 1246, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    21. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:03 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:05 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:02 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. repec:bfr:fisrev:2017:21:11 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange market pressure; Capital flows; Capital controls; Tapering;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:66:y:2016:i:c:p:65-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.