IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange market pressure and primary commodity – exporting emerging markets


  • Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan


This paper studies short-term sensitivity between exchange market pressure and various domestic and external factors in primary commodity-exporting emerging markets. The paper focuses on the top country-commodity groups in sugar, cereal, fuels, ores and coffee during the pre-peak and post-peak commodity price periods across floating and pegged exchange rate regimes, using the price of crude oil as a general benchmark. Employing a panel model and panel VAR analysis, the paper finds the heterogeneity of response patterns unique to country-commodity groups and exchange rate regimes. According to the results, in flexible regimes, volatility occurs via the foreign exchange market, interest rates, and domestic credit cycles, feeding into the social costs for structurally weaker economies. Hard exchange-rate pegs often result in a drain on international reserves as the terms of trade deteriorate following post-price peaks, leading to unpopular depreciation. These results accentuate concerns over uneven international trade patterns, an open economy’s short-term foreign exchange policy, and speculative capital flows. Such sensitivity has broad implications for macroeconomic balance and the sustainability of implied exchange rate targets in the presence of a foreign exchange constraint across emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan, 2019. "Exchange market pressure and primary commodity – exporting emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(22), pages 2390-2412, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:22:p:2390-2412
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1545077

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee & Vladyslav Sushko, 2012. "From the Great Moderation to the Global Crisis: Exchange Market Pressure in the 2000s," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 597-621, September.
    3. Khemraj, Tarron & Pasha, Sukrishnalall, 2012. "Analysis of an unannounced foreign exchange regime change," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 145-157.
    4. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
    5. Christian Senga & Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers, 2018. "Sub-Saharan African Eurobond yields: What really matters beyond global factors?," Review of Development Finance Journal, Chartered Institute of Development Finance, vol. 8(1), pages 49-62.
    6. Klaassen, Franc & Jager, Henk, 2011. "Definition-consistent measurement of exchange market pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 74-95, February.
    7. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2015. "Revisiting the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-22.
    8. repec:imf:imfsdn:15/8 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Andrés Fernández & Michael W Klein & Alessandro Rebucci & Martin Schindler & Martín Uribe, 2016. "Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 548-574, August.
    10. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    11. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    12. Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan, 2017. "The foreign exchange regime in a small open economy: Armenia and beyond," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 44(5), pages 781-800, October.
    13. Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Exchange market pressure, stock prices, and commodity prices in West Africa," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 750-765, November.
    14. Florence Dafe & Dennis Essers & Ulrich Volz, 2018. "Localising sovereign debt: The rise of local currency bond markets in sub‐Saharan Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3317-3344, December.
    15. Arkady Gevorkyan, 2017. "Renewable versus nonrenewable resources: an analysis of volatility in futures prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(1), pages 19-35, January.
    16. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:22:p:2390-2412. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.