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Sub-Saharan African Eurobond yields: What really matters beyond global factors?

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  • Christian Senga
  • Danny Cassimon
  • Dennis Essers

    (University of Antwerp)

Abstract

This study explores the drivers of secondary market yields of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) sovereign Eurobonds from 2008 to mid-2017. Our results indicate that, beyond global ‘push’ factors, country-specific ‘pull’ factors such as inflation and GDP growth matter too for SSA Eurobond performance. A panel error-correction analysis suggests large heterogeneity in the short-term influence of our global and country variables across countries. We find no significant effect of bond-specific factors on yields when push and pull factors are accounted for. By emphasizing the prominence of country variables, reflecting the quality of countries’ macroeconomic management and their economic performance, our results qualify the common view that SSA countries have little control over their market borrowing costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Senga & Danny Cassimon & Dennis Essers, 2018. "Sub-Saharan African Eurobond yields: What really matters beyond global factors?," Review of Development Finance Journal, Chartered Institute of Development Finance, vol. 8(1), pages 49-62.
  • Handle: RePEc:afj:journ3:v:8:y:2018:i:1:p:49-62
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    Cited by:

    1. Theobald, Thomas & Tober, Silke, 2020. "Euro area sovereign yield spreads as determinants of private sector borrowing costs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 27-37.
    2. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna & Paul N. Acha-Anyi, 2020. "Inclusive Education for Inclusive Economic Participation: the Financial Access Channel," Research Africa Network Working Papers 20/019, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    3. Asongu, Simplice A & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2020. "Finance,governance and inclusive education in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 26638, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    4. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2018. "ICT, Financial Access and Gender Inclusion in the Formal Economic Sector: Evidence from Africa," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 20(2), pages 45-65.
    5. Asongu, Simplice A. & Nnanna, Joseph & Acha-Anyi, Paul N., 2020. "Inequality and gender economic inclusion: The moderating role of financial access in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 173-185.
    6. Simplice A. Asongu & Oludele E. Folarin & Nicholas Biekpe, 2019. "The Stability of Demand for Money in the Proposed Southern African Monetary Union," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/025, African Governance and Development Institute..
    7. Karkowska, Renata & Urjasz, Szczepan, 2021. "Connectedness structures of sovereign bond markets in Central and Eastern Europe," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    8. SENGA, Christian, 2018. "Portfolio optimization at the frontier: Assessing the diversification benefits of African securities," Working Papers 2019001, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    9. Asongu, Simplice A. & Nnanna, Joseph & Acha-Anyi, Paul N., 2020. "Finance, inequality and inclusive education in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 162-177.
    10. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2020. "Australian Government Bonds’ Nominal Yields: A Keynesian Perspective," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Christian Senga & Danny Cassimon, 2020. "Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Sovereign Eurobond Yields," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 3746-3762, December.
    12. Christian Senga & Danny Cassimon, 2019. "African Eurobonds: why we should (not) worry!," BeFinD Policy Briefs 8, University of Namur, Department of Economics.
    13. Sheunesu Zhou, 2021. "Examining the Sources of Sovereign Risk for South Africa: A Time Varying Flexible Least Squares Approach," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 9(1), pages 29-45.
    14. Amr Hosny, 2020. "Nonresident holdings of domestic debt in Nigeria: Internal or external driven?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 472-485, September.
    15. Sène, Babacar & Mbengue, Mohamed Lamine & Allaya, Mouhamad M., 2021. "Overshooting of sovereign emerging eurobond yields in the context of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    16. Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan, 2019. "Exchange market pressure and primary commodity – exporting emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(22), pages 2390-2412, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; International bonds; Bond yields; Sub-Saharan Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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