IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ira/wpaper/202315.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity: Machine Learning Insights on Causality and Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez

    (City University of New York-Lehman College (USA). Visiting Professor - Universidad de la Sabana)

  • Jorge M. Uribe

    (Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain))

  • Oscar M. Valencia

    (Fiscal Management Division, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington (USA).)

Abstract

We investigate how a country’s economic complexity influences its sovereign yield spread with respect to the US. We analyze various maturities across 28 countries, consisting of 16 emerging and 12 advanced economies. Notably, a one-unit increase in the economic complexity index is associated to a reduction of about 87 basis points in the 10-year yield spread (p

Suggested Citation

  • Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2023. "Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity: Machine Learning Insights on Causality and Prediction," IREA Working Papers 202315, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:202315
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2023/202315.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2012. "Inflation Risk Premia In The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 634-657, May.
    2. Daniel Nepelski & Giuditta De Prato, 2020. "Technological complexity and economic development," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 448-470, May.
    3. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    4. Augustin, Patrick, 2018. "The term structure of CDS spreads and sovereign credit risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 53-76.
    5. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
    6. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Werner, Thomas, 2017. "The inflation risk premium in the post-Lehman period," Working Paper Series 2033, European Central Bank.
    7. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2012. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 187-232.
    8. Shihao Gu & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(5), pages 2223-2273.
    9. Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2013. "Analyzing determinants of bond yield spreads with Bayesian Model Averaging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5275-5284.
    10. Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Amine Mati & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2008/259, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    12. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
    13. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2023. "An explained extreme gradient boosting approach for identifying the time-varying determinants of sovereign risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    14. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen, 2014. "High-Dimensional Methods and Inference on Structural and Treatment Effects," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    15. Candelon, Bertrand & Moura, Rubens, 2023. "Sovereign yield curves and the COVID-19 in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2014. "Country credit risk determinants with model uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 224-234.
    17. Alexander W. Butler & Larry Fauver, 2006. "Institutional Environment and Sovereign Credit Ratings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 53-79, September.
    18. Liu, Zhuoshi & Spencer, Peter, 2013. "Modelling sovereign credit spreads with international macro-factors: The case of Brazil 1998–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 241-256.
    19. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
    20. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2021. "Revenue- versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: Multipliers and follow-up," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    21. Romero, João P. & Gramkow, Camila, 2021. "Economic complexity and greenhouse gas emissions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    22. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    23. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
    24. Banerji, Sanjay & Ventouri, Alexia & Wang, Zilong, 2014. "The sovereign spread in Asian emerging economies: The significance of external versus internal factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 566-576.
    25. Balland, Pierre-Alexandre & Broekel, Tom & Diodato, Dario & Giuliani, Elisa & Hausmann, Ricardo & O'Clery, Neave & Rigby, David, 2022. "Reprint of The new paradigm of economic complexity," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(8).
    26. Hartmann, Dominik & Guevara, Miguel R. & Jara-Figueroa, Cristian & Aristarán, Manuel & Hidalgo, César A., 2017. "Linking Economic Complexity, Institutions, and Income Inequality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 75-93.
    27. Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2006. "Product quality and the direction of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 238-265, January.
    28. Caggiano, Giovanni & Greco, Luciano, 2012. "Fiscal and financial determinants of Eurozone sovereign spreads," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 774-776.
    29. Shihao Gu & Bryan Kelly & Dacheng Xiu, 2020. "Empirical Asset Pricing via Machine Learning," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(5), pages 2223-2273.
    30. Sweet, Cassandra & Eterovic, Dalibor, 2019. "Do patent rights matter? 40 years of innovation, complexity and productivity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 78-93.
    31. Gala, Paulo & Camargo, Jhean & Magacho, Guilherme & Rocha, Igor, 2018. "Sophisticated jobs matter for economic complexity: An empirical analysis based on input-output matrices and employment data," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-8.
    32. Wang, Ruohan & Xue, Yi & Zheng, Wenping, 2021. "Does high external debt predict lower economic growth? Role of sovereign spreads and institutional quality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    33. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar M., 2023. "Does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    34. Wellmann, Dennis & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Factors of the term structure of sovereign yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 56-75.
    35. Beqiraj, Elton & Patella, Valeria & Tancioni, Massimiliano, 2021. "Fiscal stance and the sovereign risk pass-through," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    36. Vivek Arora & Martin Cerisola, 2001. "How Does U.S. Monetary Policy Influence Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(3), pages 1-3.
    37. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2014. "Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 100-114.
    38. Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2021. "Gender equality and economic complexity," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(4).
    39. Ferrarini, Benno & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 2016. "Production complexity, adaptability and economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 52-61.
    40. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2018. "ECB Policies Involving Government Bond Purchases: Impact and Channels [The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-44.
    41. Coroneo, Laura & Pastorello, Sergio, 2020. "European spreads at the interest rate lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    42. Chatterjee, Satyajit & Eyigungor, Burcu, 2019. "Endogenous political turnover and fluctuations in sovereign default risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 37-50.
    43. Dailami, Mansoor & Masson, Paul R. & Padou, Jean Jose, 2008. "Global monetary conditions versus country-specific factors in the determination of emerging market debt spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1325-1336, December.
    44. De Santis, Roberto A., 2020. "Impact of the Asset Purchase Programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 192-209.
    45. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    46. Hausmann, Ricardo & Hidalgo, Cesar, 2014. "The Atlas of Economic Complexity: Mapping Paths to Prosperity," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262525429, December.
    47. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704, December.
    48. Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
    49. Afonso, António & Tovar Jalles, João, 2019. "Quantitative easing and sovereign yield spreads: Euro-area time-varying evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 208-224.
    50. Wenxin Du & Jesse Schreger, 2016. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1027-1070, June.
    51. Maggioni, Daniela & Lo Turco, Alessia & Gallegati, Mauro, 2016. "Does product complexity matter for firms' output volatility?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 94-109.
    52. Du, Wenxin & Im, Joanne & Schreger, Jesse, 2018. "The U.S. Treasury Premium," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 167-181.
    53. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2010. "The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 70-92, January.
    54. Barbaros Güneri & A. Yasemin Yalta, 2021. "Does economic complexity reduce output volatility in developing countries?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 411-431, July.
    55. Eichler, Stefan, 2014. "The political determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 82-103.
    56. Matsumura, Marco S. & Vicente, José Valentim Machado, 2010. "The role of macroeconomic variables in sovereign risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 229-249, September.
    57. Eichler, Stefan & Maltritz, Dominik, 2013. "The term structure of sovereign default risk in EMU member countries and its determinants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1810-1816.
    58. Sánchez, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio & Yurdagul, Emircan, 2018. "Sovereign default and maturity choice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 72-85.
    59. Iva Petrova & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Dimitri Bellas, 2010. "Determinants of Emerging Market Sovereign Bond Spreads: Fundamentals vs Financial Stress," IMF Working Papers 2010/281, International Monetary Fund.
    60. Philipp Bach & Victor Chernozhukov & Malte S. Kurz & Martin Spindler & Sven Klaassen, 2021. "DoubleML -- An Object-Oriented Implementation of Double Machine Learning in R," Papers 2103.09603, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    61. Inci Gumus, 2011. "Exchange Rate Policy and Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Market Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 649-663, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar, 2024. "Sovereign Risk and Economic Complexity," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13393, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar M. Valencia, 2024. "Asymmetric Sovereign Risk: Implications for Climate Change Preparation," IREA Working Papers 202401, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2024.
    3. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M. & Valencia, Oscar M., 2023. "Does economic complexity reduce the probability of a fiscal crisis?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2022. "Does economic complexity matter for the shadow economy?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 210-227.
    5. Ben Saad, Myriam & Brahim, Mariem & Schaffar, Alexandra & Guesmi, Khaled & Ben Saad, Rym, 2023. "Economic complexity, diversification and economic development: The strategic factors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi & Mohamed Chakroun, 2021. "Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: a Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 12(2), pages 811-841, June.
    7. Canh Phuc Nguyen & Thanh Dinh Su, 2021. "Financing the economy: The multidimensional influences of financial development on economic complexity," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 644-684, May.
    8. Henri Njangang & Youssouf Nvuh-Njoya, 2023. "Unravelling the link between democracy and economic complexity: fresh evidence from the Varieties of Democracy data," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 1-32, March.
    9. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2017. "Sovereign default risk in OECD countries: Do global factors matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 629-639.
    10. Jeanneret, Alexandre & Souissi, Slim, 2016. "Sovereign defaults by currency denomination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 197-222.
    11. Kamguia, Brice & Tadadjeu, Sosson & Miamo, Clovis & Njangang, Henri, 2022. "Does foreign aid impede economic complexity in developing countries?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 71-88.
    12. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the utilization of non-reciprocal trade preferences offered by the QUAD countries on beneficiary countries' economic complexity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    13. Bernardo Caldarola & Dario Mazzilli & Lorenzo Napolitano & Aurelio Patelli & Angelica Sbardella, 2023. "Economic complexity and the sustainability transition: A review of data, methods, and literature," Papers 2308.07172, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    14. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Do Unilateral Trade Preferences Help Reduce Poverty in Beneficiary Countries?," EconStor Preprints 247346, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    15. Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi, 2014. "Measuring the effect of government ESG performance on sovereign borrowing cost," CIRANO Working Papers 2014s-37, CIRANO.
    16. Weneyam Hippolyte Balima & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Risk in Emerging Countries: Does Inflation Targeting Adoption Make Any Difference?," CERDI Working papers halshs-01128239, HAL.
    17. Jeanneret, Alexandre, 2018. "Sovereign credit spreads under good/bad governance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-246.
    18. Hajer Dachraoui & Mounir Smida & Maamar Sebri, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 15-33.
    19. M. Utku Özmen, 2019. "Economic complexity and sovereign risk premia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1714-1726.
    20. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2023. "Do unilateral trade preferences help reduce poverty in beneficiary countries?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 249-288, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Credit Risk; Convenience Yields; Yield Curve; Government Debt; Double-Machine-Learning; XGBoost. JEL classification: F34; G12; G15; H63; O40.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ira:wpaper:202315. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alicia García (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feubaes.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.