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Production complexity, adaptability and economic growth


  • Ferrarini, Benno
  • Scaramozzino, Pasquale


This paper analyzes the impact of production complexity and its adaptability on the level of output and on its rate of growth. We develop an endogenous growth model where increased complexity raises the rate of economic growth but has an ambiguous effect on the level of output. Our empirical measure of production adaptability captures the proximity of production sectors within the product space, which we modify to reflect intra-industry trade and the international fragmentation of production. We test the model against a sample of 89 countries over the two decades to 2009 and find that its main predictions are validated.

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  • Ferrarini, Benno & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 2016. "Production complexity, adaptability and economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 52-61.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:37:y:2016:i:c:p:52-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2015.12.001

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    1. Dušan Marković & Igor Mladenović & Miloš Milovančević, 2017. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Estimation of the most influential science and technology factors for economic growth forecasting by soft computing technique," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1133-1146, May.
    2. Petra Karanikić & Igor Mladenović & Svetlana Sokolov-Mladenović & Meysam Alizamir, 2017. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Prediction of economic growth by extreme learning approach based on science and technology transfer," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1395-1401, May.
    3. Marković, Dušan & Petković, Dalibor & Nikolić, Vlastimir & Milovančević, Miloš & Petković, Biljana, 2017. "Soft computing prediction of economic growth based in science and technology factors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 217-220.
    4. Campi, Mercedes & Dueñas, Marco & Fagiolo, Giorgio, 2020. "Specialization in food production, global food security and sustainability," Working papers 30, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    5. Angelica Sbardella & Emanuele Pugliese & Andrea Zaccaria & Pasquale Scaramozzino, 2018. "The role of complex analysis in modeling economic growth," Papers 1808.10428,
    6. Roberto Antonietti & Chiara Franco, 2020. "From FDI to economic complexity: a panel Granger causality analysis," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2014, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Mar 2020.
    7. Đokić, Aleksandar & Jović, Srđan, 2017. "Evaluation of agriculture and industry effect on economic health by ANFIS approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 396-399.
    8. Kordanuli, Bojana & Barjaktarović, Lidija & Jeremić, Ljiljana & Alizamir, Meysam, 2017. "Appraisal of artificial neural network for forecasting of economic parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 515-519.
    9. Carla Zarbà & Gaetano Chinnici & Mario D’Amico, 2020. "Novel Food: The Impact of Innovation on the Paths of the Traditional Food Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, January.
    10. Emilie Le Caous & Fenghueih Huarng, 2020. "Economic Complexity and the Mediating Effects of Income Inequality: Reaching Sustainable Development in Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(5), pages 1-26, March.
    11. Milačić, Ljubiša & Jović, Srđan & Vujović, Tanja & Miljković, Jovica, 2017. "Application of artificial neural network with extreme learning machine for economic growth estimation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 285-288.
    12. Igor Mladenović & Miloš Milovančević & Svetlana Sokolov-Mladenović, 2017. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: Analyzing of innovations influence on economic growth by fuzzy system," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1297-1304, May.
    13. Ferraz, Diogo & Moralles, Hérick Fernando & Suarez Campoli, Jéssica & Ribeiro de Oliveira, Fabíola Cristina & do Nascimento Rebelatto, Daisy Aparecida, 2018. "Economic Complexity and Human Development: DEA performance measurement in Asia and Latin America," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 839-853.
    14. Maksimović, Goran & Jović, Srđan & Jovanović, Radomir, 2017. "Economic growth rate management by soft computing approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 520-524.

    More about this item


    Product space; Production adaptability; Economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence


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