IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_568_05.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Zaghini

    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

The paper analyses the most recent evolution of the trade specialisation pattern in the 10 new EU Member States. Relying on the empirical approach of the Markov transition matrices it analyses both the changes in the external shape of the distribution of comparative advantages and the intra-distribution dynamics. The new Members show an indeed dynamic trade pattern; they were able to gain comparative advantages relatively fast in sectors in which they were lagging behind at the beginning of the transition process, notably in some �high tech� products. In addition, many specialisation improvements occurred in those items for which the world demand expands at the fastest rate, hinting to the possibility of an increase in their trade shares on world markets. Both findings can be explained by the initial need to rebuild and modernise the entire capital stock, the significant skilled-labour force endowment, and the large FDI inflows that allowed them to skip intermediate states of technological development.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "Evolution of trade patterns in the new EU member states," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 568, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_568_05
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2005/2005-0568/tema_568.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaitila, Ville, 2001. "Accession countries' comparative advantage in the internal market : A trade and factor analysis," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    2. Mr. Stanley Fischer & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2000. "The Transition Economies After Ten Years," IMF Working Papers 2000/030, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Redding, Stephen, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 299-334, December.
    4. Keld Laursen, 2000. "orignal paper: Do export and technological specialisation patterns co-evolve in terms of convergence or divergence? Evidence from 19 OECD countries, 1971-1991," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 415-436.
    5. repec:bla:reviec:v:8:y:2000:i:3:p:373-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jarko Fidrmuc & Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein & Andreas Wörgötter, 1999. "East-west intra-industry trade dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(2), pages 332-346, June.
    7. Robert Stehrer & Julia Wörz, 2003. "Technological convergence and trade patterns," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(2), pages 191-219, June.
    8. Paola Caselli & Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "International specialization models in Latin America: the case of Argentina," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 558, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
    10. Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
    11. Repkine, Alexandre & Walsh, Patrick Paul, 1999. "Evidence of European Trade and Investment U-Shaping Industrial Output in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 730-752, December.
    12. Bender, Siegfried & Li, Kui-Wai, 2002. "The Changing Trade and Revealed Comparative Advantages of Asian and Latin American Manufacture Exports," Center Discussion Papers 28478, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    13. Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-1024, September.
    14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    15. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
    16. Landesmann, Michael A. & Stehrer, Robert, 2001. "Convergence patterns and switchovers in comparative advantage," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 399-423, December.
    17. Andrea Brasili & Paolo Epifani & Rodolfo Helg, 1999. "On the dynamics of trade patterns," LIUC Papers in Economics 61, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    18. Buch, Claudia M. & Kokta, Robert M. & Piazolo, Daniel, 2003. "Foreign direct investment in Europe: Is there redirection from the South to the East?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 94-109, March.
    19. James Proudman & Stephen Redding, 2000. "Evolving Patterns of International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 373-396, August.
    20. Chiara Bentivogli & Paola Monti, 2001. "International Transmission Via Trade Links: Theoretically Consistent Indicators of Interdependence for Latin America and South-East Asia," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 410, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. Carolan, Terrie & Singh, Nirvikar & Talati, Cyrus, 1998. "The composition of U.S.-East Asia trade and changing comparative advantage," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 361-389.
    22. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. André Sapir & Daniel Begg & Alasdair Smith & Charles Wyplosz & Carl Hamilton & L. Alan Winters & Francesco Giavazzi & Victor Norman & Jean-Pierre Danthine & Damien Neven, 1990. "Monitoring European integration: the impact of Eastern Europe :a CEPR annual report," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8224, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    24. Michael A. Landesmann & Robert Stehrer, 2002. "Evolving Competitiveness of CEEC’s in an Enlarged Europe," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 92(1), pages 23-88, January-F.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raphaël Chiappini, 2014. "Persistence vs. mobility in industrial and technological specialisations: evidence from 11 Euro area countries," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 159-187, January.
    2. Andrea Zaghini, 2006. "Commercial Specialisation in the Countries of Central-Eastern Europe," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 3, July.
    3. Zaghini, Andrea, 2003. "Trade advantages and specialisation dynamics in acceding countries," Working Paper Series 249, European Central Bank.
    4. Redding, Stephen, 2002. "Specialization dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 299-334, December.
    5. Irina Marilena Ban, 2017. "Measuring trade specialization dynamics: the case of Romania and Bulgaria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 44(2), pages 229-248, May.
    6. Imre Ferto, 2007. "The Dynamics of Trade in Central and Eastern European Countries," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23.
    7. Paulo Bastos & Manuel Cabral, 2007. "The Dynamics of International Trade Patterns," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(3), pages 391-415, October.
    8. Andrea Brasili & Paolo Epifani & Rodolfo Helg, 1999. "On the dynamics of trade patterns," LIUC Papers in Economics 61, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    9. Fertő, Imre & Hubbard, Lionel J., 2005. "Az agrárkereskedelem dinamikája - A csatlakozó országok esete [The dynamics of agri-food trade patterns - the accession countries case]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 24-38.
    10. Andrea Finicelli & Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2011. "A disaggregated analysis of the export performance of some industrial and emerging countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 93-113, April.
    11. Richa Khurana & D. K. Nauriyal, 2017. "Dynamics of Services Exports in India," Millennial Asia, , vol. 8(2), pages 178-193, October.
    12. Léo CHARLES, 2015. "Evolution of trade patterns and economic performance:the case of France and Switzerland during the nineteenth century," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2015-28, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    13. Paola Caselli & Andrea Zaghini, 2005. "International specialization models in Latin America: the case of Argentina," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 558, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Beňo, Michal, 2021. "E-working: Country Versus Culture Dimension," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 13(2), June.
    15. Lee, Jim, 2011. "Export specialization and economic growth around the world," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 45-63, March.
    16. Magrini, Stefano, 1999. "The evolution of income disparities among the regions of the European Union," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 257-281, March.
    17. Nendissa, Doppy Roy & Anindita, Ratya & Khoiriyah, Nikmatul & Sa’diyah, Ana Arifatus, 2021. "Consumption and Beef Price Changes on Demand in East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 13(2), June.
    18. Ufuk Gunes Bebek, 2011. "Stability, Specialisation and Divergence in Export Patterns for EU15," Studies in Economics 1122, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    19. Štefan Bojnec & Imre Fertő, 2008. "European Enlargement and Agro‐Food Trade," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 56(4), pages 563-579, December.
    20. Abhijit Sharma & Michael Dietrich, 2004. "The Indian Economy Since Liberalisation: the Structure and Composition of Exports and Industrial Transformation (1980 – 2000)," Working Papers 2004004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2004.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Revealed comparative advantages; international specialization model; distribution dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_568_05. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.