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The Dynamics of International Trade Patterns

  • Paulo Bastos


  • Manuel Cabral

This paper introduces new dynamic measures for examining changes in international trade patterns. Using data for 20 OECD countries over the 1980-2000 period, we show that inter-industry trade changes contrary to countries' previous specialisation are frequently the dominant form of trade expansion. The econometric analysis indicates that the observed changes in trade patterns were explained by initial endowments of human-capital and industry-specific changes in labour productivity and labour costs. The results also suggest that trade liberalisation induced an increase in the previous specialisation of larger OECD economies in industries with increasing returns to scale.

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Article provided by Springer in its journal Review of World Economics.

Volume (Year): 143 (2007)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 391-415

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Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:143:y:2007:i:3:p:391-415
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  1. Leslie E. Papke & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1993. "Econometric Methods for Fractional Response Variables with an Application to 401(k) Plan Participation Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Forslid, Rikard & Haaland, Jan I. & Ulltveit-Moe, Karen-Helene, 1999. "A U-Shaped Europe? A Simulation Study of Industrial Location," CEPR Discussion Papers 2247, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Moulton, Brent R., 1986. "Random group effects and the precision of regression estimates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 385-397, August.
  4. Redding, Stephen, 1999. "Dynamic Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Effects of Trade," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 15-39, January.
  5. Patrik Tingvall, 2004. "The dynamics of European industrial structure," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 140(4), pages 665-687, December.
  6. Manuel Cabral & Joana Silva, 2006. "Intra-Industry Trade Expansion and Employment Reallocation between Sectors and Occupations," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 496-520, October.
  7. Davis, Donald R. & Weinstein, David E., 2003. "Market access, economic geography and comparative advantage: an empirical test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23, January.
  8. Marius Brülhart & Robert Elliott, 2002. "Labour-market effects of intra-industry trade: Evidence for the United Kingdom," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 138(2), pages 207-228, June.
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