IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Shrinking population and the urban hierarchy

  • Kim, Ho Yeon

This paper examines whether population shrinkage leads to changes in urban hierarchy in terms of their relative size and function from the standpoint of the new economic geography. We find some salient patterns in which small cities in the agglomeration shadow become relatively bigger as medium industries spill over on them. This appears to be quite robust against a variation in the rate of natural change among cities. Thus, rank-size relationship and the urban hierarchy are partly disrupted as population shrinks. Regarding the welfare of the residents, a lower demand for land initially causes rent to go down, which boosts the utility. However, the illusion is short-lived because markets soon begin to shrink and suppress wages. We also find that it is better to maintain a slow pace of overall population decline in the long-term perspective. More importantly, it is crucial to sustain the relative livability of smaller cities to minimize the overall loss of utility.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://ir.ide.go.jp/dspace/bitstream/2344/1165/1/ARRIDE_Discussion_No.360_kim.pdf
File Function: First version, 2012
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO) in its series IDE Discussion Papers with number 360.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in IDE Discussion Paper. No. 360. 2012.8
Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper360
Contact details of provider: Postal:
3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba 261-8545

Fax: +81-43-299-9726
Web page: http://www.ide.go.jp/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Postal: Publication Office, IDE 3-2-2 Wakaba, Mihama-ku, Chiba-shi, Chiba 261-8545 JAPAN
Web: http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Order Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Eaton, B Curtis & Lipsey, Richard G, 1982. "An Economic Theory of Central Places," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(365), pages 56-72, March.
  2. Masahisa Fujita & Paul Krugman, 2003. "The new economic geography: Past, present and the future," Papers in Regional Science, Springer;Regional Science Association International, vol. 83(1), pages 139-164, October.
  3. Berliant, Marcus & Watanabe, Hiroki, 2008. "Explaining the size distribution of cities: x-treme economies," MPRA Paper 7587, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Gilles Duranton & Diego Puga, 2000. "Nursery Cities: Urban diversity, process innovation, and the life-cycle of products," Working Papers dpuga-00-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  5. Glaeser, Edward L & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1992. "Growth in Cities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1126-52, December.
    • Glaeser, Edward Ludwig & Kallal, Hedi D. & Scheinkman, Jose A. & Shleifer, Andrei, 1992. "Growth in Cities," Scholarly Articles 3451309, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    • Edward L. Glaeser & Hedi D. Kallal & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1991. "Growth in Cities," NBER Working Papers 3787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Redding, Stephen & Venables, Anthony J., 2004. "Economic geography and international inequality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 53-82, January.
  7. Thomas J. Holmes, 1999. "Scale of Local Production and City Size," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 317-320, May.
  8. Graves, Philip E. & Mueser, Peter R., 1993. "The role of equilibrium and disequilibrium in modeling regional growth and decline: a critical reassessment," MPRA Paper 19915, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Gabaix, Xavier & Ioannides, Yannis M., 2004. "The evolution of city size distributions," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 53, pages 2341-2378 Elsevier.
  10. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Urban Structure and Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 597-624.
  11. Venables, Anthony J, 1993. "Equilibrium Locations of Vertically Linked Industries," CEPR Discussion Papers 802, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Krugman, Paul, 1996. "Confronting the Mystery of Urban Hierarchy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 399-418, December.
  13. Duncan Black & Vernon Henderson, 2003. "Urban evolution in the USA," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 343-372, October.
  14. Christopher S. Fowler, 2007. "Taking geographical economics out of equilibrium: implications for theory and policy," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(3), pages 265-284, May.
  15. Eric J Heikkila & Yiming Wang, 2009. "Fujita and Ogawa revisited: an agent-based modeling approach," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 36(4), pages 741-756, July.
  16. Davis, Donald R. & Weinstein, David E., 1999. "Economic geography and regional production structure: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 379-407, February.
  17. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2006. "Regional wage and employment responses to market potential in the EU," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 573-594, September.
  18. Ron A. Boschma & Koen Frenken, 2006. "Why is economic geography not an evolutionary science? Towards an evolutionary economic geography," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 273-302, June.
  19. Mark D. Partridge & Dan S. Rickman & Kamar Ali & M. Rose Olfert, 2007. "Do New Economic Geography Agglomeration Shadows Underlie Current Population Dynamics across the Urban Hierarchy?," Economics Working Paper Series 0708, Oklahoma State University, Department of Economics and Legal Studies in Business.
  20. Edward L. Glaeser & Janet E. Kohlhase, 2003. "Cities, Regions and the Decline of Transport Costs," NBER Working Papers 9886, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Matthieu Crozet, 2004. "Do migrants follow market potentials? An estimation of a new economic geography model," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 439-458, August.
  22. Rivera-Batiz, Francisco L., 1988. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and agglomeration economies in consumption and production," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 125-153, February.
  23. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-59, December.
  24. Ioannides, Yannis M., 1994. "Product differentiation and economic growth in a system of cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 461-484, August.
  25. Krugman, Paul, 1993. "On the number and location of cities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 293-298, April.
  26. Tomoya Mori & Koji Nishikimi & Tony E. Smith, 2008. "The Number-Average Size Rule: A New Empirical Relationship Between Industrial Location And City Size," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 165-211.
  27. Paul Krugman, 2009. "The Increasing Returns Revolution in Trade and Geography," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 561-71, June.
  28. J.V. Henderson, 1972. "The Sizes and Types of Cities," Working Papers 75, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  29. Hadar, Yossi & Pines, David, 2004. "Population growth and its distribution between cities: positive and normative aspects," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 125-154, March.
  30. Fujita, Masahisa & Mori, Tomoya, 1996. "The role of ports in the making of major cities: Self-agglomeration and hub-effect," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 93-120, April.
  31. Davis, Donald R. & Weinstein, David E., 2003. "Market access, economic geography and comparative advantage: an empirical test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23, January.
  32. Kiminiori Matsuyama, 1994. "Complementaries and Cumulative Processes In Models of Monopolistic Competition," Discussion Papers 1106, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  33. Maarten Bosker & Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2010. "Adding geography to the new economic geography: bridging the gap between theory and empirics," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(6), pages 793-823, November.
  34. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-23, June.
  35. Fujita, Masahisa & Mori, Tomoya, 1997. "Structural stability and evolution of urban systems," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4-5), pages 399-442, August.
  36. Mori, Tomoya, 1997. "A Modeling of Megalopolis Formation: The Maturing of City Systems," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 133-157, July.
  37. Alex Anas & Kai Xiong, 2003. "Intercity Trade and the Industrial Diversification of Cities," Urban/Regional 0302003, EconWPA.
  38. Rappaport, Jordan & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 2003. "The United States as a Coastal Nation," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 5-46, March.
  39. Fujita, Masahisa & Krugman, Paul & Mori, Tomoya, 1999. "On the evolution of hierarchical urban systems1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 209-251, February.
  40. Tabuchi, Takatoshi & Thisse, Jacques-François & Zeng, Dao-Zhi, 2002. "On the Number and Size of Cities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3386, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  41. David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-37, May.
  42. Stephen J. Meardon, 2001. "Modeling Agglomeration and Dispersion in City and Country: Gunnar Myrdal, FranÁois Perroux, and the New Economic Geography," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(1), pages 25-57, 01.
  43. Baldwin, Richard E & Forslid, Rikard, 2000. "The Core-Periphery Model and Endogenous Growth: Stabilizing and Destabilizing Integration," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 67(267), pages 307-24, August.
  44. Ed Glaeser & Jed Kolko & Albert Saiz, 2000. "Consumer City," NBER Working Papers 7790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. Masahisa Fujita & Tomoya Mori, 2005. "Frontiers of the New Economic Geography," KIER Working Papers 604, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  46. Forslid, Rikard & Haaland, Jan I. & Ulltveit-Moe, Karen-Helene, 1999. "A U-Shaped Europe? A Simulation Study of Industrial Location," CEPR Discussion Papers 2247, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  47. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June.
  48. Fujita, Masahisa, 1988. "A monopolistic competition model of spatial agglomeration : Differentiated product approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-124, February.
  49. Parr, John B., 1985. "A note on the size distribution of cities over time," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 199-212, September.
  50. H. Hanson, Gordon, 2005. "Market potential, increasing returns and geographic concentration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-24, September.
  51. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2001. "Bones, Bombs and Break Points: The Geography of Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 8517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Wei Fan & Frederick Treyz & George Treyz, 2000. "An Evolutionary New Economic Geography Model," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 671-695.
  53. Fujita, Masahisa & Hamaguchi, Nobuaki, 2001. "Intermediate goods and the spatial structure of an economy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 79-109, February.
  54. Abdel-Rahman Hesham M. & Fujita Masahisa, 1993. "Specialization and Diversification in a System of Cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 189-222, March.
  55. Chun-Chung Au & Vernon Henderson, 2002. "How Migration Restrictions Limit Agglomeration and Productivity in China," NBER Working Papers 8707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Gilles Duranton, 2007. "Urban Evolutions: The Fast, the Slow, and the Still," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 197-221, March.
  57. Wagner, Alfred, 1891. "Marshall's Principles of Economics," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 5, pages 319-338.
  58. Xavier Gabaix, 1999. "Zipf's Law for Cities: An Explanation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 739-767.
  59. Paul Krugman, 1998. "Space: The Final Frontier," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 161-174, Spring.
  60. Nakajima, Kentaro, 2008. "Economic division and spatial relocation: The case of postwar Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 383-400, September.
  61. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
  62. Anas, Alex, 1992. "On the birth and growth of cities: : Laissez-faire and planning compared," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 243-258, June.
  63. Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Strange, William C., 2001. "The Determinants of Agglomeration," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 191-229, September.
  64. Steven Brakman & Harry Garretsen & Marc Schramm, 2005. "Putting New Economic Geography to the Test: Free-ness of Trade and Agglomeration in the EU Regions," CESifo Working Paper Series 1566, CESifo Group Munich.
  65. Ron A. Boschma & Jan G. Lambooy, 1999. "Evolutionary economics and economic geography," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 411-429.
  66. Rosen, Kenneth T. & Resnick, Mitchel, 1980. "The size distribution of cities: An examination of the Pareto law and primacy," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 165-186, September.
  67. Fujita, Masahisa & Tabuchi, Takatoshi, 1997. "Regional growth in postwar Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 643-670, November.
  68. Yung Joon Lee & Hyoungsoo Zang, 1998. "Urbanisation and Regional Productivity in Korean Manufacturing," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 35(11), pages 2085-2099, November.
  69. Henderson, Vernon, 1997. "Medium size cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 583-612, November.
  70. Fujita, Masahisa & Ogawa, Hideaki, 1982. "Multiple equilibria and structural transition of non-monocentric urban configurations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 161-196, May.
  71. Camagni, Roberto & Diappi, Lidia & Leonardi, Giorgio, 1986. "Urban growth and decline in a hierarchical system A supply-oriented dynamic approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 145-160, February.
  72. Abdel-Rahman, Hesham M., 1994. "Economies of scope in intermediate goods and a system of cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 497-524, August.
  73. Starrett, David, 1978. "Market allocations of location choice in a model with free mobility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 21-37, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper360. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marie Kobayashi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.